Real-time Monitoring of Economic Shocks using Company Websites

Understanding the effects of economic shocks on firms is critical for analyzing economic growth and resilience. We introduce a Web-Based Affectedness Indicator (W AI), a general-purpose tool for real-time monitoring of economic disruptions across diverse contexts. By leveraging Large Language Model (LLM) assisted classification and information extraction on texts from over five million company websites, W AI quantifies the degree and nature of firms' responses to external shocks. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a specific application, we show that W AI is highly correlated with pandemic containment measures and reliably predicts firm performance. Unlike traditional data sources, W AI provides timely firm-level information across industries and geographies worldwide that would otherwise be unavailable due to institutional and data availability constraints. This methodology offers significant potential for monitoring and mitigating the impact of technological, political, financial, health or environmental crises, and represents a transformative tool for adaptive policy-making and economic resilience. Economic shocks, whether driven by public health crises, technological disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, or climate events, pose significant challenges to businesses and policymakers alike. Timely and accurate monitoring of these shocks is critical for crafting effective responses and enhancing economic resilience. However, traditional methods for measuring the impacts of such disruptions - such as surveys and administrative data - are often limited by costs, time lags, and coverage. In this study, we introduce the Web-Based Affectedness Indicator (W AI), a scalable and cost-effective tool for real-time monitoring of economic disruptions at the firm level. By analyzing textual data from millions of company websites, W AI provides granular insights into how firms experience and respond to external shocks. This 1 methodology overcomes traditional limitations by leveraging ubiquitous online content and state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) models to generate a dynamic and comprehensive view of economic affectedness. W AI can provide information on a wide range of challenges, including supply chain disruptions, financial crises, and climate-related shocks.