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A single algorithm for both restless and rested rotting bandits

Seznec, Julien, Ménard, Pierre, Lazaric, Alessandro, Valko, Michal

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many application domains (e.g., recommender systems, intelligent tutoring systems), the rewards associated to the actions tend to decrease over time. This decay is either caused by the actions executed in the past (e.g., a user may get bored when songs of the same genre are recommended over and over) or by an external factor (e.g., content becomes outdated). These two situations can be modeled as specific instances of the rested and restless bandit settings, where arms are rotting (i.e., their value decrease over time). These problems were thought to be significantly different, since Levine et al. (2017) showed that state-of-the-art algorithms for restless bandit perform poorly in the rested rotting setting. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm, Rotting Adaptive Window UCB (RAW-UCB), that achieves near-optimal regret in both rotting rested and restless bandit, without any prior knowledge of the setting (rested or restless) and the type of non-stationarity (e.g., piece-wise constant, bounded variation). This is in striking contrast with previous negative results showing that no algorithm can achieve similar results as soon as rewards are allowed to increase. We confirm our theoretical findings on a number of synthetic and dataset-based experiments.


Contraction and Hourglass Persistence for Learning on Graphs, Simplices, and Cells

Ji, Mattie, Roy, Indradyumna, Garg, Vikas

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Persistent homology (PH) encodes global information, such as cycles, and is thus increasingly integrated into graph neural networks (GNNs). PH methods in GNNs typically traverse an increasing sequence of subgraphs. In this work, we first expose limitations of this inclusion procedure. To remedy these shortcomings, we analyze contractions as a principled topological operation, in particular, for graph representation learning. We study the persistence of contraction sequences, which we call Contraction Homology (CH). We establish that forward PH and CH differ in expressivity. We then introduce Hourglass Persistence, a class of topological descriptors that interleave a sequence of inclusions and contractions to boost expressivity, learnability, and stability. We also study related families parametrized by two paradigms. We also discuss how our framework extends to simplicial and cellular networks. We further design efficient algorithms that are pluggable into end-to-end differentiable GNN pipelines, enabling consistent empirical improvements over many PH methods across standard real-world graph datasets. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/Aalto-QuML/Hourglass}{this https URL}.


Robots can't replace guide dogs

Popular Science

Technology AI Robots can't replace guide dogs Man's best friend shares an'invisible care world' with humans that AI can't beat--yet. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. Guide dogs are highly trained and can help people with vision loss navigate the world, open doors, and more. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. On paper, few physical jobs seem as ripe for AI takeover as that of the loyal service dog .


Computationally lightweight classifiers with frequentist bounds on predictions

Murali, Shreeram, Rojas, Cristian R., Baumann, Dominik

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While both classical and neural network classifiers can achieve high accuracy, they fall short on offering uncertainty bounds on their predictions, making them unfit for safety-critical applications. Existing kernel-based classifiers that provide such bounds scale with $\mathcal O (n^{\sim3})$ in time, making them computationally intractable for large datasets. To address this, we propose a novel, computationally efficient classification algorithm based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, for whose estimates we derive frequentist uncertainty intervals. We evaluate our classifier on synthetically generated data and on electrocardiographic heartbeat signals from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. We show that the method achieves competitive accuracy $>$\SI{96}{\percent} at $\mathcal O(n)$ and $\mathcal O(\log n)$ operations, while providing actionable uncertainty bounds. These bounds can, e.g., aid in flagging low-confidence predictions, making them suitable for real-time settings with resource constraints, such as diagnostic monitoring or implantable devices.


Mixture-Model Preference Learning for Many-Objective Bayesian Optimization

Dubey, Manisha, De Peuter, Sebastiaan, Wang, Wanrong, Kaski, Samuel

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Preference-based many-objective optimization faces two obstacles: an expanding space of trade-offs and heterogeneous, context-dependent human value structures. Towards this, we propose a Bayesian framework that learns a small set of latent preference archetypes rather than assuming a single fixed utility function, modelling them as components of a Dirichlet-process mixture with uncertainty over both archetypes and their weights. To query efficiently, we designing hybrid queries that target information about (i) mode identity and (ii) within-mode trade-offs. Under mild assumptions, we provide a simple regret guarantee for the resulting mixture-aware Bayesian optimization procedure. Empirically, our method outperforms standard baselines on synthetic and real-world many-objective benchmarks, and mixture-aware diagnostics reveal structure that regret alone fails to capture.


Elements of Conformal Prediction for Statisticians

Sesia, Matteo, Favaro, Stefano

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has emerged as a rapidly growing alternative framework that is particularly well suited to modern applications involving high-dimensional data and complex machine learning models. Its appeal stems from being both distribution-free -- relying mainly on symmetry assumptions such as exchangeability -- and model-agnostic, treating the learning algorithm as a black box. Even under such limited assumptions, conformal prediction provides exact finite-sample guarantees, though these are typically of a marginal nature that requires careful interpretation. This paper explains the core ideas of conformal prediction and reviews selected methods. Rather than offering an exhaustive survey, it aims to provide a clear conceptual entry point and a pedagogical overview of the field.


Can quantum computers now solve health care problems? We'll soon find out.

MIT Technology Review

I'm standing in front of a quantum computer built out of atoms and light at the UK's National Quantum Computing Centre on the outskirts of Oxford. On a laboratory table, a complex matrix of mirrors and lenses surrounds a Rubik's Cube-size cell where 100 cesium atoms are suspended in grid formation by a carefully manipulated laser beam. The cesium atom setup is so compact that I could pick it up, carry it out of the lab, and put it on the backseat of my car to take home. I'd be unlikely to get very far, though.


Bayesian Inference of Psychometric Variables From Brain and Behavior in Implicit Association Tests

Kothe, Christian A., Mullen, Sean, Bronstein, Michael V., Hanada, Grant, Cicconet, Marcelo, McInnes, Aaron N., Mullen, Tim, Aafjes, Marc, Sponheim, Scott R., Widge, Alik S.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Objective. We establish a principled method for inferring mental health related psychometric variables from neural and behavioral data using the Implicit Association Test (IAT) as the data generation engine, aiming to overcome the limited predictive performance (typically under 0.7 AUC) of the gold-standard D-score method, which relies solely on reaction times. Approach. We propose a sparse hierarchical Bayesian model that leverages multi-modal data to predict experiences related to mental illness symptoms in new participants. The model is a multivariate generalization of the D-score with trainable parameters, engineered for parameter efficiency in the small-cohort regime typical of IAT studies. Data from two IAT variants were analyzed: a suicidality-related E-IAT ($n=39$) and a psychosis-related PSY-IAT ($n=34$). Main Results. Our approach overcomes a high inter-individual variability and low within-session effect size in the dataset, reaching AUCs of 0.73 (E-IAT) and 0.76 (PSY-IAT) in the best modality configurations, though corrected 95% confidence intervals are wide ($\pm 0.18$) and results are marginally significant after FDR correction ($q=0.10$). Restricting the E-IAT to MDD participants improves AUC to 0.79 $[0.62, 0.97]$ (significant at $q=0.05$). Performance is on par with the best reference methods (shrinkage LDA and EEGNet) for each task, even when the latter were adapted to the task, while the proposed method was not. Accuracy was substantially above near-chance D-scores (0.50-0.53 AUC) in both tasks, with more consistent cross-task performance than any single reference method. Significance. Our framework shows promise for enhancing IAT-based assessment of experiences related to entrapment and psychosis, and potentially other mental health conditions, though further validation on larger and independent cohorts will be needed to establish clinical utility.


How Pokémon Go is giving delivery robots an inch-perfect view of the world

MIT Technology Review

Niantic's AI spinout is training a new world model using 30 billion images of urban landmarks crowdsourced from players. Pokémon Go was the world's first augmented-reality megahit. Released in 2016 by the Google spinout Niantic, the AR twist on the juggernaut Pokémon franchise fast became a global phenomenon. From Chicago to Oslo to Enoshima, players hit the streets in the urgent hope of catching a Jigglypuff or a Squirtle or (with a huge amount of luck) an ultra-rare Galarian Zapdos hovering just out of reach, superimposed on the everyday world. "Five hundred million people installed that app in 60 days," says Brian McClendon, CTO at Niantic Spatial, an AI company that Niantic spun out in May last year. According to the video-game firm Scopely, which bought Pokémon Go from Niantic at the same time, the game still drew more than 100 million players in 2024, eight years after it launched.