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Gaussian Processes with Sample Paths in Reproducing Kernel Banach Spaces

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the connection between Gaussian processes and Gaussian random elements in reproducing kernel Banach spaces. We show that the covariance operator of a weak second-order Radon probability measure on such a space is uniquely determined by a positive definite function. In the Gaussian case, we characterize those positive definite functions that arise from covariance operators in terms of $γ$-radonifying operators. Building on these results, we extend the classical Driscoll theorem to the Banach space setting.


The Behavioral Credibility Trilemma: When Calibrated Autonomy Becomes Impossible

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We prove that no reinforcement learning policy with confidence-gated autonomy can simultaneously achieve maximum helpfulness, optimal calibration, and full autonomy under rational oversight, whenever some tasks exceed the agent's reliable competence: the Behavioral Credibility Trilemma. The impossibility is geometric -- adding any non-affine autonomy incentive to a strictly proper scoring rule destroys strict properness, so an agent rewarded for both calibrated confidence and autonomous action systematically inflates its reported confidence on tasks below the principal's approval threshold. The Behavioral Perturbation Lemma quantifies the inflation (scaling as $w_A/(2 w_C)$ for the Brier score) and shows detection requires $Ω(1/Δ^2)$ observations. We prove the principal's optimal oversight rule is necessarily non-affine, making the impossibility unconditional and optimizer-independent across log-concave-density policy families. We formalize the Confidence-Gated Decision Problem, map existing methods onto the trilemma, and identify two constructive resolution pathways (commitment, domain separation). A 540-configuration Best-of-N experiment tests five pre-registered hypotheses, all strongly confirmed (effect sizes $d = 1.10$ to $5.32$), and adds a descriptive analysis of the achievable-$(H, C, A)$ surface geometry showing a plateau-truncated frontier consistent with the predicted inflation saturation.


Finland ends drone alert amid regional fears of Ukraine war spillover

Al Jazeera

What are Russia's gains from the Iran war? 'We are not losers; we are winners' Finland has stood down its defence forces after sounding an alarm over suspected drone activities in its airspace. The authorities said on Friday that suspected drone activity above the Helsinki region no longer posed a threat and that the situation was returning to normal hours after launching an emergency response, including the launch of fighter jets and closure of the capital's airport. The Helsinki City Rescue Department had warned the nearly 2 million inhabitants of Finland's Uusimaa region to stay indoors starting about 4am local time (1:00 GMT), as fighter jets were scrambled. Helsinki's airport was also closed for about three hours. Later, President Alexander Stubb wrote on X that authorities had "demonstrated their readiness and capacity to react", adding that the country was now facing "no direct military threat". Kimmo Kohvakka, director general for rescue services at the Ministry of the Interior, called the response a "precautionary measure" and said "daily life can continue."


A single algorithm for both restless and rested rotting bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many application domains (e.g., recommender systems, intelligent tutoring systems), the rewards associated to the actions tend to decrease over time. This decay is either caused by the actions executed in the past (e.g., a user may get bored when songs of the same genre are recommended over and over) or by an external factor (e.g., content becomes outdated). These two situations can be modeled as specific instances of the rested and restless bandit settings, where arms are rotting (i.e., their value decrease over time). These problems were thought to be significantly different, since Levine et al. (2017) showed that state-of-the-art algorithms for restless bandit perform poorly in the rested rotting setting. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm, Rotting Adaptive Window UCB (RAW-UCB), that achieves near-optimal regret in both rotting rested and restless bandit, without any prior knowledge of the setting (rested or restless) and the type of non-stationarity (e.g., piece-wise constant, bounded variation). This is in striking contrast with previous negative results showing that no algorithm can achieve similar results as soon as rewards are allowed to increase. We confirm our theoretical findings on a number of synthetic and dataset-based experiments.


Contraction and Hourglass Persistence for Learning on Graphs, Simplices, and Cells

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Persistent homology (PH) encodes global information, such as cycles, and is thus increasingly integrated into graph neural networks (GNNs). PH methods in GNNs typically traverse an increasing sequence of subgraphs. In this work, we first expose limitations of this inclusion procedure. To remedy these shortcomings, we analyze contractions as a principled topological operation, in particular, for graph representation learning. We study the persistence of contraction sequences, which we call Contraction Homology (CH). We establish that forward PH and CH differ in expressivity. We then introduce Hourglass Persistence, a class of topological descriptors that interleave a sequence of inclusions and contractions to boost expressivity, learnability, and stability. We also study related families parametrized by two paradigms. We also discuss how our framework extends to simplicial and cellular networks. We further design efficient algorithms that are pluggable into end-to-end differentiable GNN pipelines, enabling consistent empirical improvements over many PH methods across standard real-world graph datasets. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/Aalto-QuML/Hourglass}{this https URL}.


Robots can't replace guide dogs

Popular Science

Technology AI Robots can't replace guide dogs Man's best friend shares an'invisible care world' with humans that AI can't beat--yet. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. Guide dogs are highly trained and can help people with vision loss navigate the world, open doors, and more. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. On paper, few physical jobs seem as ripe for AI takeover as that of the loyal service dog .


Computationally lightweight classifiers with frequentist bounds on predictions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While both classical and neural network classifiers can achieve high accuracy, they fall short on offering uncertainty bounds on their predictions, making them unfit for safety-critical applications. Existing kernel-based classifiers that provide such bounds scale with $\mathcal O (n^{\sim3})$ in time, making them computationally intractable for large datasets. To address this, we propose a novel, computationally efficient classification algorithm based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, for whose estimates we derive frequentist uncertainty intervals. We evaluate our classifier on synthetically generated data and on electrocardiographic heartbeat signals from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. We show that the method achieves competitive accuracy $>$\SI{96}{\percent} at $\mathcal O(n)$ and $\mathcal O(\log n)$ operations, while providing actionable uncertainty bounds. These bounds can, e.g., aid in flagging low-confidence predictions, making them suitable for real-time settings with resource constraints, such as diagnostic monitoring or implantable devices.


Mixture-Model Preference Learning for Many-Objective Bayesian Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Preference-based many-objective optimization faces two obstacles: an expanding space of trade-offs and heterogeneous, context-dependent human value structures. Towards this, we propose a Bayesian framework that learns a small set of latent preference archetypes rather than assuming a single fixed utility function, modelling them as components of a Dirichlet-process mixture with uncertainty over both archetypes and their weights. To query efficiently, we designing hybrid queries that target information about (i) mode identity and (ii) within-mode trade-offs. Under mild assumptions, we provide a simple regret guarantee for the resulting mixture-aware Bayesian optimization procedure. Empirically, our method outperforms standard baselines on synthetic and real-world many-objective benchmarks, and mixture-aware diagnostics reveal structure that regret alone fails to capture.


Elements of Conformal Prediction for Statisticians

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has emerged as a rapidly growing alternative framework that is particularly well suited to modern applications involving high-dimensional data and complex machine learning models. Its appeal stems from being both distribution-free -- relying mainly on symmetry assumptions such as exchangeability -- and model-agnostic, treating the learning algorithm as a black box. Even under such limited assumptions, conformal prediction provides exact finite-sample guarantees, though these are typically of a marginal nature that requires careful interpretation. This paper explains the core ideas of conformal prediction and reviews selected methods. Rather than offering an exhaustive survey, it aims to provide a clear conceptual entry point and a pedagogical overview of the field.


Can quantum computers now solve health care problems? We'll soon find out.

MIT Technology Review

I'm standing in front of a quantum computer built out of atoms and light at the UK's National Quantum Computing Centre on the outskirts of Oxford. On a laboratory table, a complex matrix of mirrors and lenses surrounds a Rubik's Cube-size cell where 100 cesium atoms are suspended in grid formation by a carefully manipulated laser beam. The cesium atom setup is so compact that I could pick it up, carry it out of the lab, and put it on the backseat of my car to take home. I'd be unlikely to get very far, though.