Many applications of Bayesian data analysis involve sensitive information such as personal documents or medical records, motivating methods which ensure that privacy is protected. We introduce a general privacy-preserving framework for Variational Bayes (VB), a widely used optimization-based Bayesian inference method. Our framework respects differential privacy, the gold-standard privacy criterion, and encompasses a large class of probabilistic models, called the Conjugate Exponential (CE) family. We observe that we can straightforwardly privatise VB's approximate posterior distributions for models in the CE family, by perturbing the expected sufficient statistics of the complete-data likelihood. For a broadly-used class of non-CE models, those with binomial likelihoods, we show how to bring such models into the CE family, such that inferences in the modified model resemble the private variational Bayes algorithm as closely as possible, using the Pólya-Gamma data augmentation scheme. The iterative nature of variational Bayes presents a further challenge since iterations increase the amount of noise needed. We overcome this by combining: (1) an improved composition method for differential privacy, called the moments accountant, which provides a tight bound on the privacy cost of multiple VB iterations and thus significantly decreases the amount of additive noise; and (2) the privacy amplification effect of subsampling mini-batches from large-scale data in stochastic learning. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in CE and non-CE models including latent Dirichlet allocation, Bayesian logistic regression, and sigmoid belief networks, evaluated on real-world datasets.

The connection between messaging and action is fundamental both to web applications, such as web search and sentiment analysis, and to economics. However, while prominent online applications exploit messaging in natural (human) language in order to predict non-strategic action selection, the economics literature focuses on the connection between structured stylized messaging to strategic decisions in games and multi-agent encounters. This paper aims to connect these two strands of research, which we consider highly timely and important due to the vast online textual communication on the web. Particularly, we introduce the following question: Can free text expressed in natural language serve for the prediction of action selection in an economic context, modeled as a game? In order to initiate the research on this question, we introduce the study of an individual's action prediction in a one-shot game based on free text he/she provides, while being unaware of the game to be played. We approach the problem by attributing commonsensical personality attributes via crowd-sourcing to free texts written by individuals, and employing transductive learning to predict actions taken by these individuals in one-shot games based on these attributes. Our approach allows us to train a single classifier that can make predictions with respect to actions taken in multiple games. In experiments with three well-studied games, our algorithm compares favorably with strong alternative approaches. In ablation analysis, we demonstrate the importance of our modeling choices--the representation of the text with the commonsensical personality attributes and our classifier--to the predictive power of our model.

In this paper, we discuss the learning of generalised policies for probabilistic and classical planning problems using Action Schema Networks (ASNets). The ASNet is a neural network architecture that exploits the relational structure of (P)PDDL planning problems to learn a common set of weights that can be applied to any problem in a domain. By mimicking the actions chosen by a traditional, non-learning planner on a handful of small problems in a domain, ASNets are able to learn a generalised reactive policy that can quickly solve much larger instances from the domain. This work extends the ASNet architecture to make it more expressive, while still remaining invariant to a range of symmetries that exist in PPDDL problems. We also present a thorough experimental evaluation of ASNets, including a comparison with heuristic search planners on seven probabilistic and deterministic domains, an extended evaluation on over 18,000 Blocksworld instances, and an ablation study. Finally, we show that sparsity-inducing regularisation can produce ASNets that are compact enough for humans to understand, yielding insights into how the structure of ASNets allows them to generalise across a domain.

Markov decision processes are of major interest in the planning community as well as in the model checking community. But in spite of the similarity in the considered formal models, the development of new techniques and methods happened largely independently in both communities. This work is intended as a beginning to unite the two research branches. We consider goal-reachability analysis as a common basis between both communities. The core of this paper is the translation from Jani, an overarching input language for quantitative model checkers, into the probabilistic planning domain definition language (PPDDL), and vice versa from PPDDL into Jani. These translations allow the creation of an overarching benchmark collection, including existing case studies from the model checking community, as well as benchmarks from the international probabilistic planning competitions (IPPC). We use this benchmark set as a basis for an extensive empirical comparison of various approaches from the model checking community, variants of value iteration, and MDP heuristic search algorithms developed by the AI planning community. On a per benchmark domain basis, techniques from one community can achieve state-ofthe-art performance in benchmarks of the other community. Across all benchmark domains of one community, the performance comparison is however in favor of the solvers and algorithms of that particular community. Reasons are the design of the benchmarks, as well as tool-related limitations. Our translation methods and benchmark collection foster crossfertilization between both communities, pointing out specific opportunities for widening the scope of solvers to different kinds of models, as well as for exchanging and adopting algorithms across communities.

Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) techniques have been successfully applied to many classes of sequential decision problems in the past decades. However, non-stationary settings -- very common in real-world applications -- received little attention so far, and theoretical guarantees on the regret are known only for some frequentist algorithms. In this paper, we propose an algorithm, namely Sliding-Window Thompson Sampling (SW-TS), for nonstationary stochastic MAB settings. Our algorithm is based on Thompson Sampling and exploits a sliding-window approach to tackle, in a unified fashion, two different forms of non-stationarity studied separately so far: abruptly changing and smoothly changing. In the former, the reward distributions are constant during sequences of rounds, and their change may be arbitrary and happen at unknown rounds, while, in the latter, the reward distributions smoothly evolve over rounds according to unknown dynamics. Under mild assumptions, we provide regret upper bounds on the dynamic pseudo-regret of SW-TS for the abruptly changing environment, for the smoothly changing one, and for the setting in which both the non-stationarity forms are present. Furthermore, we empirically show that SW-TS dramatically outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms even when the forms of non-stationarity are taken separately, as previously studied in the literature.

We consider the problem of fairly allocating a set of indivisible goods among n agents. Various fairness notions have been proposed within the rapidly growing field of fair division, but the Nash social welfare (NSW) serves as a focal point. In part, this follows from the ‘unreasonable’ fairness guarantees provided, in the sense that a max NSW allocation meets multiple other fairness metrics simultaneously, all while satisfying a standard economic concept of efficiency, Pareto optimality. However, existing approximation algorithms fail to satisfy all of the remarkable fairness guarantees offered by a max NSW allocation, instead targeting only the specific NSW objective. We address this issue by presenting a 2 max NSW, Prop-1, 1/(2n) MMS, and Pareto optimal allocation in strongly polynomial time. Our techniques are based on a market interpretation of a fractional max NSW allocation. We present novel definitions of fairness concepts in terms of market prices, and design a new scheme to round a market equilibrium into an integral allocation in a way that provides most of the fairness properties of an integral max NSW allocation.

Learning a sequence of tasks is a long-standing challenge in machine learning. This setting applies to learning systems that observe examples of a range of tasks at different points in time. A learning system should become more knowledgeable as more related tasks are learned. Although the problem of learning sequentially was acknowledged for the first time decades ago, the research in this area has been rather limited. Research in transfer learning, multitask learning, metalearning and deep learning has studied some challenges of these kinds of systems. Recent research in lifelong machine learning and continual learning has revived interest in this problem. We propose Proficiente, a full framework for long-term learning systems. Proficiente relies on knowledge transferred between hypotheses learned with Support Vector Machines. The first component of the framework is focused on transferring forward selectively from a set of existing hypotheses or functions representing knowledge acquired during previous tasks to a new target task. A second component of Proficiente is focused on transferring backward, a novel ability of long-term learning systems that aim to exploit knowledge derived from recent tasks to encourage refinement of existing knowledge. We propose a method that transfers selectively from a task learned recently to existing hypotheses representing previous tasks. The method encourages retention of existing knowledge whilst refining. We analyse the theoretical properties of the proposed framework. Proficiente is accompanied by an agnostic metric that can be used to determine if a long-term learning system is becoming more knowledgeable. We evaluate Proficiente in both synthetic and real-world datasets, and demonstrate scenarios where knowledgeable supervised learning systems can be achieved by means of transfer.

We investigate the decidability and computational complexity of conservative extensions and the related notions of inseparability and entailment in Horn description logics (DLs) with inverse roles. We consider both query conservative extensions, defined by requiring that the answers to all conjunctive queries are left unchanged, and deductive conservative extensions, which require that the entailed concept inclusions, role inclusions, and functionality assertions do not change. Upper bounds for query conservative extensions are particularly challenging because characterizations in terms of unbounded homomorphisms between universal models, which are the foundation of the standard approach to establishing decidability, fail in the presence of inverse roles. We resort to a characterization that carefully mixes unbounded and bounded homomorphisms and enables a decision procedure that combines tree automata and a mosaic technique. Our main results are that query conservative extensions are 2ExpTime-complete in all DLs between ELI and Horn-ALCHIF and between Horn-ALC and Horn-ALCHIF, and that deductive conservative extensions are 2ExpTime-complete in all DLs between ELI and ELHIF . The same results hold for inseparability and entailment.

The problem of achieving common understanding between agents that use different vocabularies has been mainly addressed by techniques that assume the existence of shared external elements, such as a meta-language or a physical environment. In this article, we consider agents that use different vocabularies and only share knowledge of how to perform a task, given by the specification of an interaction protocol. We present a framework that lets agents learn a vocabulary alignment from the experience of interacting. Unlike previous work in this direction, we use open protocols that constrain possible actions instead of defining procedures, making our approach more general. We present two techniques that can be used either to learn an alignment from scratch or to repair an existent one, and we evaluate their performance experimentally.

How many statistical inference tools we have for inference from massive data? A huge number, but only when we are ready to assume the given database is homogenous, consisting of a large cohort of "similar" cases. Why we need the homogeneity assumption? To make `learning from the experience of others' or `borrowing strength' possible. But, what if, we are dealing with a massive database of heterogeneous cases (which is a norm in almost all modern data-science applications including neuroscience, genomics, healthcare, and astronomy)? How many methods we have in this situation? Not much, if not ZERO. Why? It's not obvious how to go about gathering strength when each piece of information is fuzzy. The danger is that, if we include irrelevant cases, borrowing information might heavily damage the quality of the inference! This raises some fundamental questions for big data inference: When (not) to borrow? Whom (not) to borrow? How (not) to borrow? These questions are at the heart of the "Problem of Relevance" in statistical inference -- a puzzle that has remained too little addressed since its inception nearly half a century ago. Here we offer the first practical theory of relevance with precisely describable statistical formulation and algorithm. Through examples, we demonstrate how our new statistical perspective answers previously unanswerable questions in a realistic and feasible way.