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Integrative Learning of Dynamically Evolving Multiplex Graphs and Nodal Attributes Using Neural Network Gaussian Processes with an Application to Dynamic Terrorism Graphs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Exploring the dynamic co-evolution of multiplex graphs and nodal attributes is a compelling question in criminal and terrorism networks. This article is motivated by the study of dynamically evolving interactions among prominent terrorist organizations, considering various organizational attributes like size, ideology, leadership, and operational capacity. Statistically principled integration of multiplex graphs with nodal attributes is significantly challenging due to the need to leverage shared information within and across layers, account for uncertainty in predicting unobserved links, and capture temporal evolution of node attributes. These difficulties increase when layers are partially observed, as in terrorism networks where connections are deliberately hidden to obscure key relationships. To address these challenges, we present a principled methodological framework to integrate the multiplex graph layers and nodal attributes. The approach employs time-varying stochastic latent factor models, leveraging shared latent factors to capture graph structure and its co-evolution with node attributes. Latent factors are modeled using Gaussian processes with an infinitely wide deep neural network-based covariance function, termed neural network Gaussian processes (NN-GP). The NN-GP framework on latent factors exploits the predictive power of Bayesian deep neural network architecture while propagating uncertainty for reliability. Simulation studies highlight superior performance of the proposed approach in achieving inferential objectives. The approach, termed as dynamic joint learner, enables predictive inference (with uncertainty) of diverse unobserved dynamic relationships among prominent terrorist organizations and their organization-specific attributes, as well as clustering behavior in terms of friend-and-foe relationships, which could be informative in counter-terrorism research.


Meet the Gods of AI Warfare

WIRED

In its early days, the AI initiative known as Project Maven had its fair share of skeptics at the Pentagon. Today, many of them are true believers. The rise of AI warfare speaks to the biggest moral and practical question there is: Who--or what--gets to decide to take a human life? And who bears that cost? In 2018, more than 3,000 Google workers protested the company's involvement in "the business of war" after finding out the company was part of Project Maven, then a nascent Pentagon effort to use computer vision to rifle through copious video footage taken in America's overseas drone wars. They feared Project Maven's AI could one day be used for lethal targeting. In my yearslong effort to uncover the full story of Project Maven for my book,, I learned that is exactly what happened, and that the undertaking was just as controversial inside the Pentagon. Today, the tool known as Maven Smart System is being used in US operations against Iran . How the US military's top brass moved from skepticism about the use of AI in war to true believers has a lot to do with a Marine colonel named Drew Cukor. In early September 2024, during the cocktail hour at a private retreat for tech investors and defense leaders, Vice Admiral Frank "Trey" Whitworth found his way to Drew Cukor. Now Project Maven's founding leader and his skeptical successor were standing face-to-face. Three years earlier, Whitworth had been the Pentagon's top military official for intelligence, advising the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and running one of the most sensitive and potentially lethal parts of any military process: targeting.


Japan considers mass drone use for coastal defense

The Japan Times

Amid an increasingly severe security environment, the Defense Ministry plans to establish a coastal defense system using thousands of drones, though there are still many issues to overcome. The SHIELD defense system will involve more than 10 types of drones, including those for attacking enemy ships, collecting information and protecting radar sites, to thwart enemy advances in a multilayered manner. The government's fiscal 2026 budget bill allocates around ¥100 billion ($628.7 million) for the drone defense system, which the ministry aims to implement in fiscal 2027. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever. By subscribing, you can help us get the story right.





10 vulnerable wildlife species to watch in 2026

Popular Science

The Swampy Black Iguana is the oldest specimen living at the Iguana Station scientific station, where they have a breeding and conservation project for black spiny-tailed iguanas. This species, endemic to Utila, is in danger of extinction. The Utila Iguana Conservation Project seeks to ensure the survival of this species. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. With the turning of the calendar comes a new year and new vulnerable endangered plant and animal species to keep a watchful eye on.


The best new popular science books of January 2026

New Scientist

Megan Eaves-Egenes's Nightfaring explores our connection with the night sky Here in the northern hemisphere, January always feels like the longest, drabbest month of the year, so how lucky we are to have a host of new science books to enliven our days. This month, we can explore everything from what the arts bring to our lives to the unsung hero that is friction. Or what we lose when we light up our skies? Daisy Fancourt's Art Cure investigates the impact of the arts, including dancing, on our minds and bodies What if playing the piano, dancing, visiting art galleries or even lying in the mud listening to Wolf Alice at Glastonbury was good for the body, mind and longevity? Or what if it could help us develop brain resilience against dementia? In theory, she's well-placed to make the case as a professor of psychobiology and epidemiology at University College London and director of the WHO's arts and health initiative.


Japan and five Central Asian nations adopt joint declaration at first summit

The Japan Times

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi attends a summit with five Central Asian nations in Tokyo on Saturday. Japan and five Central Asian nations adopted a joint declaration at their first summit, held in Tokyo for two days through Saturday. The declaration identifies transportation infrastructure development, decarbonization and people-to-people exchanges as three priority areas. The current rapidly changing environment surrounding Central Asia, due to recent changes in the international situation, is making regional and global cooperation more important, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said at the summit. The summit was also attended by the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.


Generative Neural Machine Translation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce Generative Neural Machine Translation (GNMT), a latent variable architecture which is designed to model the semantics of the source and target sentences. We modify an encoder-decoder translation model by adding a latent variable as a language agnostic representation which is encouraged to learn the meaning of the sentence. GNMT achieves competitive BLEU scores on pure translation tasks, and is superior when there are missing words in the source sentence. We augment the model to facilitate multilingual translation and semi-supervised learning without adding parameters. This framework significantly reduces over-fitting when there is limited paired data available, and is effective for translating between pairs of languages not seen during training.