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Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation in Regression Ensemble Models with Pairwise Epistemic Estimators Lucas Berry, David Meger Department of Computer Science McGill University lucas.berry@mail.mcgill.ca

Neural Information Processing Systems

This work introduces a novel approach, Pairwise Epistemic Estimators (PairEpEsts), for epistemic uncertainty estimation in ensemble models for regression tasks using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). By utilizing the pairwise distances between model components, PaiDEs establish bounds on entropy. We leverage this capability to enhance the performance of Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD). Notably, unlike sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PairEpEsts can estimate epistemic uncertainty up to 100 times faster and demonstrate superior performance in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a varied series of regression experiments on commonly used benchmarks: 1D sinusoidal data, Pendulum, Hopper, Ant, and Humanoid, demonstrating PairEpEsts' advantage over baselines in high-dimensional regression active learning.


Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation in Regression Ensemble Models with Pairwise Epistemic Estimators

Neural Information Processing Systems

This work introduces a novel approach, Pairwise Epistemic Estimators (PairEpEsts), for epistemic uncertainty estimation in ensemble models for regression tasks using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). By utilizing the pairwise distances between model components, PaiDEs establish bounds on entropy. We leverage this capability to enhance the performance of Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD). Notably, unlike sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PairEpEsts can estimate epistemic uncertainty up to 100 times faster and demonstrate superior performance in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a varied series of regression experiments on commonly used benchmarks: 1D sinusoidal data,,,, and, demonstrating PairEpEsts' advantage over baselines in high-dimensional regression active learning.


Estonia says Nato jet shot down drone over its territory

BBC News

Estonia has said a Nato fighter jet shot down a drone, which it suspects was a Ukrainian projectile knocked off course by Russian electronic jamming, over its territory. Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said a Romanian F-16 fired a missile and drone debris fell in a marshy area in central Estonia on Tuesday. Ukraine reacted by accusing Russia of deliberately redirecting Ukrainian drones launched at legitimate military targets in Russia, apologising to Estonia and all of our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents. Russia has not commented on the latest in a series of recent drone incursions over Nato members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Last week, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina resigned following a political crisis over Russia-bound Ukrainian drones straying into Latvian territory.


How Pokรฉmon Go is giving delivery robots an inch-perfect view of the world

MIT Technology Review

Niantic's AI spinout is training a new world model using 30 billion images of urban landmarks crowdsourced from players. Pokรฉmon Go was the world's first augmented-reality megahit. Released in 2016 by the Google spinout Niantic, the AR twist on the juggernaut Pokรฉmon franchise fast became a global phenomenon. From Chicago to Oslo to Enoshima, players hit the streets in the urgent hope of catching a Jigglypuff or a Squirtle or (with a huge amount of luck) an ultra-rare Galarian Zapdos hovering just out of reach, superimposed on the everyday world. "Five hundred million people installed that app in 60 days," says Brian McClendon, CTO at Niantic Spatial, an AI company that Niantic spun out in May last year. According to the video-game firm Scopely, which bought Pokรฉmon Go from Niantic at the same time, the game still drew more than 100 million players in 2024, eight years after it launched.







ReST-MCTS: LLM Self-Training via Process Reward Guided Tree Search Dan Zhang

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recent methodologies in LLM self-training mostly rely on LLM generating responses and filtering those with correct output answers as training data. This approach often yields a low-quality fine-tuning training set (e.g., incorrect plans or intermediate reasoning).