A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Repression and Mobilization in Bangladesh's July Revolution Using Machine Learning and Statistical Modeling

Abstract--The 2024 July Revolution in Bangladesh represents a landmark event in the study of civil resistance: a successful, student-led civilian uprising that overthrew a long-standing authoritarian regime despite facing brutal state repression. This study investigates the central paradox of its success: how state violence, intended to quell dissent, ultimately fueled the movement's victory. We employ a mixed-methods approach. First, we develop a qualitative narrative of the conflict's timeline to generate specific, testable hypotheses. Then, using a disaggregated, event-level dataset, we employ a multi-method quantitative analysis to dissect the complex relationship between repression and mobilisation. We provide a framework to analyse explosive modern uprisings like the July Revolution. Initial pooled regression models highlight the crucial role of protest momentum (measured by a feedback loop effect) in sustaining the movement. T o isolate causal effects, we specify a Two-Way Fixed Effects panel model, which provides robust evidence for a direct and statistically significant local suppression backfire effect. Our V ector Autoregression (V AR) analysis provides clear visual evidence of an immediate, nationwide mobilisation in response to increased lethal violence. We further demonstrate that this effect was non-linear . A structural break analysis reveals that the backfire dynamic was statistically insignificant in the conflict's early phase but was triggered by the catalytic moral shock of the first wave of lethal violence, and its visuals circulated around July 16th. We conclude that the July Revolution was driven by a contingent, non-linear backfire, triggered by specific catalytic moral shocks and accelerated by the viral reaction to the visual spectacle of state brutality. N August 2024, the fifteen-year rule of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh came to a sudden and dramatic end. After weeks of escalating nationwide protests, she resigned from her post and fled the country. These authors contributed equally to this work. Saiful Bari Siddiqui is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh (e-mail: saiful.bari@bracu.ac.bd). Anupam Debashis Roy is a PhD candidate at the Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom (e-mail: anu-pam.roy@sant.ox.ac.uk). In a matter of weeks, this initial spark grew into a nationwide fire, as hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens joined the students, bringing the country to a standstill and achieving a political transformation that had seemed unthinkable just a month earlier.