Penalty Shootouts: Is the Team That Kicks First More Likely to Win? Penalty kicks are already proving critical to big wins at this year's World Cup. But the advantage in penalty kicks has more to do with psychological effects than who kicks first. A penalty kick during the Netherlands' round of 32 match against Morocco. In a World Cup, some of the most important matches are decided by a penalty shootout. When that moment comes, the captains want to win the coin toss to decide the order of the kicks.

Classical hypothesis testing frameworks break down in contemporary settings in which null hypotheses are increasingly abstract, the same data are used to both generate and test hypotheses, and minimal assumptions about the underlying data are made. In this work, we propose a new framework for conducting valid hypothesis tests in broad contexts. We propose to add and subtract external noise generated from a symmetric shift-family to our data, $X$, to partition it into two pieces, $X^{(1)}$ and $X^{(2)}$. We provide a generic strategy for orthogonalizing $X^{(2)}$ against $X^{(1)}$ under the null hypothesis $H_0$, then show that testing whether the orthogonalization was successful provides a valid test of $H_0$ under mild assumptions. Remarkably, this framework extends naturally to the post-selection inference setting: we simply select a hypothesis on $X^{(1)}$, then perform orthogonalization under the selected null. As our approach neither requires pre-specification of the selection mechanism, nor is restricted to a small class of data-generating distributions, it dramatically expands the settings for which valid post-selection inference can be conducted. We showcase the flexibility of our proposal in several case studies involving challenging pre-specified null hypotheses and post-selection inference scenarios.

The Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) is the canonical local measure of the curvature of a statistical model's log-likelihood surface, and its dominant eigenvalue λmax quantifies the worst-case sensitivity of the model's output distribution to infinitesimal parameter perturbation [1, 2]. The spectral properties of the FIM of neural networks have been studied directly in the random matrix theory literature. Pennington and Worah [4] derive the limiting spectral density of the FIM of a single-hidden-layer network in the high-dimensional asymptotic regime, building on the broader programme of analysing neural network Hessian and kernel spectra via random matrix methods [5, 6], with subsequent work extending these techniques to deeper architectures and non-asymptotic regimes [7, 8]. These results characterize the typical (bulk and edge) spectral behaviour of the FIM for a fixed network and a random or structured input ensemble. This paper studies a complementary question, posed as a perturbation problem rather than an asymptotic-spectrum problem: how does the dominant eigenvalue of a fixed, evaluated empirical FIM change under two specific structured perturbations of the underlying distribution? The first perturbation is a change in the conditioning input away from a reference (in-distribution) ensemble. The second is a structured additive perturbation of the model's own parameters by finite-precision quantization noise -- a perturbation of independent mathematical interest, since it falls outside the i.i.d.-input asymptotic regime treated in the random matrix literature cited above, and instead concerns a fixed network whose parameters, not its input distribution, are perturbed by a noise process with a specific, analytically tractable structure (Definition 4.1). To our knowledge, this parameterperturbation question for the FIM's dominant eigenvalue, under either source of departure, has not been previously formalized.

Binary classification from positive-only samples is a variant of PAC learning in which the learner receives i.i.d. samples from the positive region of an unknown target concept, but is evaluated under the original distribution (which places mass on both positive and negative regions). This model dates back to Natarajan [1987, STOC], and the characterization of improper learning is well-known -- it even appears in textbooks. The characterization of proper positive-only learning, however, has long remained open. In this work, we revisit and settle this question: a concept class is properly learnable from positive-only samples if and only if it has finite VC dimension and satisfies a new combinatorial condition, which we call uniform exterior separability. Together with several separation results, this characterization reveals a surprisingly rich landscape that differs sharply from standard PAC learning: proper and improper learning are separated, randomized and deterministic proper learning are separated, there are classes for which no ERM is a learner, and finite VC dimension does not suffice even for non-uniform learning. Along the way, we introduce new combinatorial dimensions that we believe can be of broader interest in learning theory.

A fine-grained account of functional selectivity in the cortex is essential for understanding how visual information is processed and represented in the brain. Classical studies using designed experiments have identified multiple category-selective regions; however, these approaches rely on preconceived hypotheses about categories. Subsequent data-driven discovery methods have sought to address this limitation but are often limited by simple, typically linear encoding models. We propose an in silico approach for data-driven discovery of novel category-selectivity hypotheses based on an encoder-decoder transformer model. The architecture incorporates a brain-region to image-feature cross-attention mechanism, enabling nonlinear mappings between high-dimensional deep network features and semantic patterns encoded in the brain activity. We further introduce a method to characterize the selectivity of individual parcels by leveraging diffusion-based image generative models and large-scale datasets to synthesize and select images that maximally activate each parcel. Our approach reveals regions with complex, compositional selectivity involving diverse semantic concepts, which we validate in silico both within and across subjects. Using a brain encoder as a "digital twin" offers a powerful, data-driven framework for generating and testing hypotheses about visual selectivity in the human brain--hypotheses that can guide future fMRI experiments.

We investigate the robustness of Large Language Models (LLMs) to structural interventions by deleting and swapping adjacent layers during inference. Surprisingly, models retain 72-95% of their original top-1 prediction accuracy without any fine-tuning. We find that performance degradation is not uniform across layers: interventions to the early and final layers cause the most degradation, while the model is remarkably robust to dropping middle layers. This pattern of localized sensitivity motivates our hypothesis of four stages of inference, observed across diverse model families and sizes: (1) detokenization, where local context is integrated to lift raw token embeddings into higher-level representations; (2) feature engineering, where task-and entity-specific features are iteratively refined; (3) prediction ensembling, where hidden states are aggregated into plausible next-token predictions; and (4) residual calibration, where irrelevant features are suppressed to finalize the top-1 output distribution. Synthesizing behavioral and mechanistic evidence, we provide a hypothesis for interpreting depth-dependent computations in LLMs.

Prompting is the primary method by which we study and control large language models. It is also one of the most powerful: nearly every major capability attributed to LLMs--few-shot learning, chain-of-thought, constitutional AI--was first unlocked through prompting. Yet prompting is rarely treated as science and is frequently frowned upon as alchemy. We argue that this is a category error. If we treat LLMs as a new kind of organism--complex, opaque, and trained rather than programmed--then prompting is not a workaround.

Understanding when learning is possible is a fundamental task in the theory of machine learning. However, many characterizations known from the literature deal with abstract learning as a mathematical object and ignore the crucial question: when can learning be implemented as a computer program? We address this question for universal online learning, a generalist theoretical model of online binary classification, recently characterized by Bousquet et al. (STOC 21). In this model, there is no hypothesis fixed in advance; instead, Adversary--playing the role of Nature--can change their mind as long as local consistency with the given class of hypotheses is maintained. We require Learner to achieve a finite number of mistakes while using a strategy that can be implemented as a computer program. We show that universal online learning does not imply computable universal online learning, even if the class of hypotheses is relatively easy from a computabilitytheoretic perspective. We then study the agnostic variant of computable universal online learning and provide an exact characterization of classes that are learnable in this sense. We also consider a variant of proper universal online learning and show exactly when it is possible. Together, our results give a more realistic perspective on the existing theory of online binary classification and the related problem of inductive inference.

We consider the two-sample testing problem for networks, where the goal is to determine whether two sets of networks originated from the same stochastic model. Assuming no vertex correspondence and allowing for different numbers of nodes, we address a fundamental network testing problem that goes beyond simple adjacency matrix comparisons. We adopt the stochastic block model (SBM) for network distributions, due to their interpretability and the potential to approximate more general models. The lack of meaningful node labels and vertex correspondence translate to a graph matching challenge when developing a test for SBMs. We introduce an efficient algorithm to match estimated network parameters, allowing us to properly combine and contrast information within and across samples, leading to a powerful test. We show that the matching algorithm, and the overall test are consistent, under mild conditions on the sparsity of the networks and the sample sizes, and derive a chi-squared asymptotic null distribution for the test.

We revisit the problem of private online learning, in which a learner receives a sequence of T data points and has to respond at each time-step a hypothesis. It is required that the entire stream of output hypotheses should satisfy differential privacy. Prior work of Golowich and Livni [2021] established that every concept class H with finite Littlestone dimension d is privately online learnable in the realizable setting. In particular, they proposed an algorithm that achieves an Od(logT) mistake bound against an oblivious adversary. However, their approach yields a suboptimal Od( T) bound against an adaptive adversary. In this work, we present a new algorithm with a mistake bound of Od(logT)against an adaptive adversary, closing this gap. We further investigate the problem in the agnostic setting, which is more general than the realizable setting as it does not impose any assumptions on the data. We give an algorithm that obtains a sublinear regret of Od( T) for generic Littlestone classes, demonstrating that they are also privately online learnable in the agnostic setting.