Probabilistic graphical models have been widely used to model complex systems and aid scientific discoveries. As a result, there is a large body of literature focused on consistent model selection. However, scientists are often interested in understanding uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters, which current literature has not addressed thoroughly. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for edge parameters for pairwise graphical models based on Hyv\arinen scoring rule. Hyv\arinen scoring rule is especially useful in cases where the normalizing constant cannot be obtained efficiently in a closed form.

In this paper, we study the problem of maximizing continuous submodular functions that naturally arise in many learning applications such as those involving utility functions in active learning and sensing, matrix approximations and network inference. Despite the apparent lack of convexity in such functions, we prove that stochastic projected gradient methods can provide strong approximation guarantees for maximizing continuous submodular functions with convex constraints. More specifically, we prove that for monotone continuous DR-submodular functions, all fixed points of projected gradient ascent provide a factor $1/2$ approximation to the global maxima. We also study stochastic gradient methods and show that after $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon^2)$ iterations these methods reach solutions which achieve in expectation objective values exceeding $(\frac{\text{OPT}}{2}-\epsilon)$. An immediate application of our results is to maximize submodular functions that are defined stochastically, i.e. the submodular function is defined as an expectation over a family of submodular functions with an unknown distribution. We will show how stochastic gradient methods are naturally well-suited for this setting, leading to a factor $1/2$ approximation when the function is monotone. In particular, it allows us to approximately maximize discrete, monotone submodular optimization problems via projected gradient ascent on a continuous relaxation, directly connecting the discrete and continuous domains. Finally, experiments on real data demonstrate that our projected gradient methods consistently achieve the best utility compared to other continuous baselines while remaining competitive in terms of computational effort.

Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be reconstructed from the spreading data. Moreover, in realistic settings it is impossible to monitor the state of each node at every time, and thus the data is highly incomplete. We introduce an efficient dynamic message-passing algorithm, which is able to reconstruct parameters of the spreading model given only partial information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The method is generalizable to a large class of dynamic models, as well to the case of temporal graphs.

A hallmark of human intelligence is the ability to ask rich, creative, and revealing questions. Here we introduce a cognitive model capable of constructing human-like questions. Our approach treats questions as formal programs that, when executed on the state of the world, output an answer. The model specifies a probability distribution over a complex, compositional space of programs, favoring concise programs that help the agent learn in the current context. We evaluate our approach by modeling the types of open-ended questions generated by humans who were attempting to learn about an ambiguous situation in a game. We find that our model predicts what questions people will ask, and can creatively produce novel questions that were not present in the training set. In addition, we compare a number of model variants, finding that both question informativeness and complexity are important for producing human-like questions.

Probabilistic inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) provide powerful tools for constraining procedural models in computer graphics, but they require many samples to produce desirable results. In this paper, we show how to create procedural models which learn how to satisfy constraints. We augment procedural models with neural networks which control how the model makes random choices based on the output it has generated thus far. We call such models neurally-guided procedural models. As a pre-computation, we train these models to maximize the likelihood of example outputs generated via SMC. They are then used as efficient SMC importance samplers, generating high-quality results with very few samples. We evaluate our method on L-system-like models with image-based constraints. Given a desired quality threshold, neurally-guided models can generate satisfactory results up to 10x faster than unguided models.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural networks augmented with external memory have the ability to learn algorithmic solutions to complex tasks. These models appear promising for applications such as language modeling and machine translation. However, they scale poorly in both space and time as the amount of memory grows --- limiting their applicability to real-world domains. Here, we present an end-to-end differentiable memory access scheme, which we call Sparse Access Memory (SAM), that retains the representational power of the original approaches whilst training efficiently with very large memories. We show that SAM achieves asymptotic lower bounds in space and time complexity, and find that an implementation runs $1,\!000\times$ faster and with $3,\!000\times$ less physical memory than non-sparse models. SAM learns with comparable data efficiency to existing models on a range of synthetic tasks and one-shot Omniglot character recognition, and can scale to tasks requiring $100,\!000$s of time steps and memories. As well, we show how our approach can be adapted for models that maintain temporal associations between memories, as with the recently introduced Differentiable Neural Computer.

Existing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are either based on general-purpose and domain-agnostic schemes, which can lead to slow convergence, or require hand-crafting of problem-specific proposals by an expert. We propose A-NICE-MC, a novel method to train flexible parametric Markov chain kernels to produce samples with desired properties. First, we propose an efficient likelihood-free adversarial training method to train a Markov chain and mimic a given data distribution. Then, we leverage flexible volume preserving flows to obtain parametric kernels for MCMC. Using a bootstrap approach, we show how to train efficient Markov Chains to sample from a prescribed posterior distribution by iteratively improving the quality of both the model and the samples. A-NICE-MC provides the first framework to automatically design efficient domain-specific MCMC proposals. Empirical results demonstrate that A-NICE-MC combines the strong guarantees of MCMC with the expressiveness of deep neural networks, and is able to significantly outperform competing methods such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

We study a general adversarial online learning problem, in which we are given a decision set X' in a reflexive Banach space X and a sequence of reward vectors in the dual space of X. At each iteration, we choose an action from X', based on the observed sequence of previous rewards. Our goal is to minimize regret, defined as the gap between the realized reward and the reward of the best fixed action in hindsight. Using results from infinite dimensional convex analysis, we generalize the method of Dual Averaging (or Follow the Regularized Leader) to our setting and obtain upper bounds on the worst-case regret that generalize many previous results. Under the assumption of uniformly continuous rewards, we obtain explicit regret bounds in a setting where the decision set is the set of probability distributions on a compact metric space S. Importantly, we make no convexity assumptions on either the set S or the reward functions. We also prove a general lower bound on the worst-case regret for any online algorithm. We then apply these results to the problem of learning in repeated two-player zero-sum games on compact metric spaces. In doing so, we first prove that if both players play a Hannan-consistent strategy, then with probability 1 the empirical distributions of play weakly converge to the set of Nash equilibria of the game. We then show that, under mild assumptions, Dual Averaging on the (infinite-dimensional) space of probability distributions indeed achieves Hannan-consistency.

Two-stream Convolutional Networks (ConvNets) have shown strong performance for human action recognition in videos. Recently, Residual Networks (ResNets) have arisen as a new technique to train extremely deep architectures. In this paper, we introduce spatiotemporal ResNets as a combination of these two approaches.