Medical researchers are coming to appreciate that many diseases are in fact complex, heterogeneous syndromes composed of subpopulations that express different variants of a related complication. Longitudinal data extracted from individual electronic health records (EHR) offer an exciting new way to study subtle differences in the way these diseases progress over time. In this paper, we focus on answering two questions that can be asked using these databases of longitudinal EHR data. First, we want to understand whether there are individuals with similar disease trajectories and whether there are a small number of degrees of freedom that account for differences in trajectories across the population. Second, we want to understand how important clinical outcomes are associated with disease trajectories. To answer these questions, we propose the Disease Trajectory Map (DTM), a novel probabilistic model that learns low-dimensional representations of sparse and irregularly sampled longitudinal data. We propose a stochastic variational inference algorithm for learning the DTM that allows the model to scale to large modern medical datasets. To demonstrate the DTM, we analyze data collected on patients with the complex autoimmune disease, scleroderma. We find that DTM learns meaningful representations of disease trajectories and that the representations are significantly associated with important clinical outcomes.

Learning a regression function using censored or interval-valued output data is an important problem in fields such as genomics and medicine. The goal is to learn a real-valued prediction function, and the training output labels indicate an interval of possible values. Whereas most existing algorithms for this task are linear models, in this paper we investigate learning nonlinear tree models. We propose to learn a tree by minimizing a margin-based discriminative objective function, and we provide a dynamic programming algorithm for computing the optimal solution in log-linear time. We show empirically that this algorithm achieves state-of-the-art speed and prediction accuracy in a benchmark of several data sets.

Experience constantly shapes neural circuits through a variety of plasticity mechanisms. While the functional roles of some plasticity mechanisms are well-understood, it remains unclear how changes in neural excitability contribute to learning. Here, we develop a normative interpretation of intrinsic plasticity (IP) as a key component of unsupervised learning. We introduce a novel generative mixture model that accounts for the class-specific statistics of stimulus intensities, and we derive a neural circuit that learns the input classes and their intensities. We will analytically show that inference and learning for our generative model can be achieved by a neural circuit with intensity-sensitive neurons equipped with a specific form of IP. Numerical experiments verify our analytical derivations and show robust behavior for artificial and natural stimuli. Our results link IP to non-trivial input statistics, in particular the statistics of stimulus intensities for classes to which a neuron is sensitive. More generally, our work paves the way toward new classification algorithms that are robust to intensity variations.

We consider a two-player sequential game in which agents have the same reward function but may disagree on the transition probabilities of an underlying Markovian model of the world. By committing to play a specific policy, the agent with the correct model can steer the behavior of the other agent, and seek to improve utility. We model this setting as a multi-view decision process, which we use to formally analyze the positive effect of steering policies. Furthermore, we develop an algorithm for computing the agents' achievable joint policy, and we experimentally show that it can lead to a large utility increase when the agents' models diverge.

We propose to prune a random forest (RF) for resource-constrained prediction. We first construct a RF and then prune it to optimize expected feature cost & accuracy. We pose pruning RFs as a novel 0-1 integer program with linear constraints that encourages feature re-use. We establish total unimodularity of the constraint set to prove that the corresponding LP relaxation solves the original integer program. We then exploit connections to combinatorial optimization and develop an efficient primal-dual algorithm, scalable to large datasets. In contrast to our bottom-up approach, which benefits from good RF initialization, conventional methods are top-down acquiring features based on their utility value and is generally intractable, requiring heuristics. Empirically, our pruning algorithm outperforms existing state-of-the-art resource-constrained algorithms.

We introduce a new formulation of the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework for modeling families of related tasks using low-dimensional latent embeddings.

Through the introduction of a diffusion-convolution operation, we show how diffusion-based representations can be learned from graph-structured data and used as an effective basis for node classification. DCNNs have several attractive qualities, including a latent representation for graphical data that is invariant under isomorphism, as well as polynomial-time prediction and learning that can be represented as tensor operations and efficiently implemented on a GPU. Through several experiments with real structured datasets, we demonstrate that DCNNs are able to outperform probabilistic relational models and kernel-on-graph methods at relational node classification tasks.

We provide two fundamental results on the population (infinite-sample) likelihood function of Gaussian mixture models with $M \geq 3$ components. Our first main result shows that the population likelihood function has bad local maxima even in the special case of equally-weighted mixtures of well-separated and spherical Gaussians. We prove that the log-likelihood value of these bad local maxima can be arbitrarily worse than that of any global optimum, thereby resolving an open question of Srebro (2007). Our second main result shows that the EM algorithm (or a first-order variant of it) with random initialization will converge to bad critical points with probability at least $1-e^{-\Omega(M)}$. We further establish that a first-order variant of EM will not converge to strict saddle points almost surely, indicating that the poor performance of the first-order method can be attributed to the existence of bad local maxima rather than bad saddle points. Overall, our results highlight the necessity of careful initialization when using the EM algorithm in practice, even when applied in highly favorable settings.

This work provides a framework for addressing the problem of supervised domain adaptation with deep models. The main idea is to exploit adversarial learning to learn an embedded subspace that simultaneously maximizes the confusion between two domains while semantically aligning their embedding. The supervised setting becomes attractive especially when there are only a few target data samples that need to be labeled. In this few-shot learning scenario, alignment and separation of semantic probability distributions is difficult because of the lack of data. We found that by carefully designing a training scheme whereby the typical binary adversarial discriminator is augmented to distinguish between four different classes, it is possible to effectively address the supervised adaptation problem. In addition, the approach has a high "speed" of adaptation, i.e. it requires an extremely low number of labeled target training samples, even one per category can be effective. We then extensively compare this approach to the state of the art in domain adaptation in two experiments: one using datasets for handwritten digit recognition, and one using datasets for visual object recognition.

Matrix completion, where we wish to recover a low rank matrix by observing a few entries from it, is a widely studied problem in both theory and practice with wide applications. Most of the provable algorithms so far on this problem have been restricted to the offline setting where they provide an estimate of the unknown matrix using all observations simultaneously. However, in many applications, the online version, where we observe one entry at a time and dynamically update our estimate, is more appealing. While existing algorithms are efficient for the offline setting, they could be highly inefficient for the online setting. In this paper, we propose the first provable, efficient online algorithm for matrix completion. Our algorithm starts from an initial estimate of the matrix and then performs non-convex stochastic gradient descent (SGD). After every observation, it performs a fast update involving only one row of two tall matrices, giving near linear total runtime. Our algorithm can be naturally used in the offline setting as well, where it gives competitive sample complexity and runtime to state of the art algorithms. Our proofs introduce a general framework to show that SGD updates tend to stay away from saddle surfaces and could be of broader interests to other non-convex problems.