Analyzing Economic Convergence Across the Americas: A Survival Analysis Approach to GDP per Capita Trajectories

Abstract: By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a period of 120 months (2013-2022). A comparative investigation reveals that DeepSurv is proficient at capturing non-linear interactions, although standard models exhibit comparable performance under certain circumstances. The weight matrix evaluates the economic ramifications of vulnerabilities, risks, and capacities. In order to meet the GDPpc objective, the findings emphasize the need of a balanced approach to risk-taking, strategic vulnerability reduction, and investment in governmental capacities and social cohesiveness. Policy guidelines promote individualized approaches that take into account the complex dynamics at play while making decisions. JEL: 04, C8, C5, O1 1. Introduction In contemporary economic research, the exploration of temporal dynamics in a nation's journey to achieve a specific level of GDP per capita gains paramount importance. This empirical investigation, conducted across 33 American countries, adopts a nuanced approach by incorporating a comprehensive dataset that includes countries with right-censored data (9 countries) and those reaching a 5% increase in GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PIBpcPPP) within 120 months (24 countries). In addressing the central query, this research aims to unravel the intricate relationship of variables and risks influencing the time required for a country to achieve the specified 5% increase in GDP per capita. Leveraging advanced statistical techniques, particularly survival analysis, the study incorporates key variables such as Vul_Inherent, Vul_Fragility_Democracy, and Vul_Human Rights, offering a robust understanding of multifaceted vulnerabilities. This academic pursuit emphasizes rigorous methodologies, empirical analyses, and data-driven insights.