Image caption, Will Pep Guardiola or Mikel Arteta be lifting the Premier League trophy next month? With five games to go, Manchester City and Arsenal are only separated on goals scored at the top of the Premier League table. It's a new league now, says Gunners boss Mikel Arteta, whose side had been top of the table for 209 days until Wednesday. Manchester City's 2-1 win over Arsenal on Sunday boosted their hopes - and a 1-0 victory at Burnley on Wednesday sent them top. Who is going to win the title now?

This paper investigates the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem from a distributional perspective. Rather than focusing solely on the expectation of the total return, as in most existing OPE methods, we aim to estimate the entire return distribution. To this end, we introduce a quantile-based approach for OPE using deep quantile process regression, presenting a novel algorithm called Deep Quantile Process regression-based Off-Policy Evaluation (DQPOPE). We provide new theoretical insights into the deep quantile process regression technique, extending existing approaches that estimate discrete quantiles to estimate a continuous quantile function. A key contribution of our work is the rigorous sample complexity analysis for distributional OPE with deep neural networks, bridging theoretical analysis with practical algorithmic implementations. We show that DQPOPE achieves statistical advantages by estimating the full return distribution using the same sample size required to estimate a single policy value using conventional methods. Empirical studies further show that DQPOPE provides significantly more precise and robust policy value estimates than standard methods, thereby enhancing the practical applicability and effectiveness of distributional reinforcement learning approaches.

We study post-training interpretability for Support Vector Machines (SVMs) built from truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels. Since the associated reproducing kernel Hilbert space is finite-dimensional and admits an explicit tensor-product orthonormal basis, the fitted decision function can be expanded exactly in intrinsic RKHS coordinates. This leads to Orthogonal Representation Contribution Analysis (ORCA), a diagnostic framework based on normalized Orthogonal Kernel Contribution (OKC) indices. These indices quantify how the squared RKHS norm of the classifier is distributed across interaction orders, total polynomial degrees, marginal coordinate effects, and pairwise contributions. The methodology is fully post-training and requires neither surrogate models nor retraining. We illustrate its diagnostic value on a synthetic double-spiral problem and on a real five-dimensional echocardiogram dataset. The results show that the proposed indices reveal structural aspects of model complexity that are not captured by predictive accuracy alone.

We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via weights assigned to each sample, to obtain weighted versions of standard estimators such as M-estimators and maximum-likelihood estimators. Under mild assumptions on the data, we obtain a precise asymptotic characterization of the performance of our method for general Gaussian designs, in the high-dimensional limit where the number of samples and covariate dimension grow proportionally. We show how this characterization can be used to efficiently construct a posterior distribution over change points. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real data illustrate the efficacy of Weighted ERM compared to existing approaches, demonstrating that sample weights constructed with weakly informative priors can yield accurate change point estimators. Our method is implemented as an open-source package, weightederm, available in Python and R.

The world's most family-friendly landmarks revealed - with six UK spots making the top 50 The UK's best staycations revealed by Daily Mail Travel - from a Gara Rock beach proposal to an £80-a-night mansion retreat This sun-drenched European coast offers great value - and it's just a two-hour flight away Don't get caught out by Ryanair's small bag restrictions - I've tested the carry-on suitcases and underseat bags that beat the strict requirements Why heading to Salcombe, one of Britain's most expensive seaside towns, in the shoulder season is an off-peak treat - and what to do there Tired of fun! Middle class families who turn their noses up at Butlin's are missing out Luxury hotel owner in Cornwall offers to foot British tourists' petrol bills to ease financial pain of staycation With flights disrupted amid Iran war, these are Europe's easiest countries to navigate by train - and how it compares to flying for price and time How to retire to the seaside for as little as £90,000 - and Britain's best hidden beach home spots New business class seats with IMAX-style wrap-around screens revealed - making passengers feel like they're in the cinema How the cost of your staycation REALLY compares with a'cheap' holiday abroad - when you factor in everything from food to fuel Why the Lake District shouldn't introduce tourism tax, says Cumbria tourism boss How Marseille became Europe's Capital of Cool - with 20 degree sunshine, sea views and amazing seafood The world's best food markets revealed - and a UK spot comes in second place READ MORE: The best hotels in the UK for 2026 revealed - does YOUR favourite make the list? Ready to hit the mute button on reality? Deep in the Pembrokeshire countryside lies a cosmic retreat that feels almost light years away from Earth. The awe-inspiring Spodnic UFO is one of three standout stays at Melin Mabes, a four-acre glamping site owned and ran by Martin Johnson and his wife, CarolAnne. 'It looks like it's just landed from outer space and aliens could come out,' Martin notes as he showcases his brainchild during the first episode of Channel's World's Most Secret Hotels.

The requirement of generating predictions that exactly fulfill the fundamental symmetry of the corresponding physical quantities has profoundly shaped the development of machine-learning models for physical simulations. In many cases, models are built using constrained mathematical forms that ensure that symmetries are enforced exactly. However, unconstrained models that do not obey rotational symmetries are often found to have competitive performance, and to be able to \emph{learn} to a high level of accuracy an approximate equivariant behavior with a simple data augmentation strategy. In this paper, we introduce rigorous metrics to measure the symmetry content of the learned representations in such models, and assess the accuracy by which the outputs fulfill the equivariant condition. We apply these metrics to two unconstrained, transformer-based models operating on decorated point clouds (a graph neural network for atomistic simulations and a PointNet-style architecture for particle physics) to investigate how symmetry information is processed across architectural layers and is learned during training. Based on these insights, we establish a rigorous framework for diagnosing spectral failure modes in ML models. Enabled by this analysis, we demonstrate that one can achieve superior stability and accuracy by strategically injecting the minimum required inductive biases, preserving the high expressivity and scalability of unconstrained architectures while guaranteeing physical fidelity.

Privacy and algorithmic fairness have become two central issues in modern machine learning. Although each has separately emerged as a rapidly growing research area, their joint effect remains comparatively under-explored. In this paper, we systematically study the joint impact of differential privacy and fairness on classification in a federated setting, where data are distributed across multiple servers. Targeting demographic disparity constrained classification under federated differential privacy, we propose a two-step algorithm, namely FDP-Fair. In the special case where there is only one server, we further propose a simple yet powerful algorithm, namely CDP-Fair, serving as a computationally-lightweight alternative. Under mild structural assumptions, theoretical guarantees on privacy, fairness and excess risk control are established. In particular, we disentangle the source of the private fairness-aware excess risk into a) intrinsic cost of classification, b) cost of private classification, c) non-private cost of fairness and d) private cost of fairness. Our theoretical findings are complemented by extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, highlighting the practicality of our designed algorithms.

Its low-rank QTT structure arises from intrinsic spectral smoothness in continuous models, or from spectral energy concentration as the number of components D grows in discrete models. We demonstrate this on weighted sums of Bernoulli and lognormal random variables. In the latter, the approach reaches high-resolution discretizations of N = 230 frequency modes on standard hardware, far beyond the N =224 ceiling of dense implementations. These compressed representations enable efficient computation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), supporting applications in quantitative finance and beyond. I. INTRODUCTION Weighted sums of independent random variables constitute a basic probabilistic model, describing macroscopic behavior arising from the aggregation of microscopic stochastic components. These models arise in a wide range of applications. Their probability distribution generally lacks a closed-form expression, and their evaluation involves multidimensional convolution integrals that are susceptible to the curse of dimensionality. Consequently, evaluating these models relies on specializednumericalmethods. Whilethese methods have been adapted for discrete settings [18, 19], they are frequently hampered by persistent Gibbs oscillations, which arise from distributional discontinuities and preclude uniform convergence [20, 21]. No existing method simultaneously achieves an accurate approximation of the exact, fully non-Gaussian target distribution while remaining scalable to larger, practically relevant system sizes. In this work, we introduce a new algorithm that combines the Fourier spectral method with tensor-network techniques.

This paper proposes a new formulation of functional Gaussian Process regression in manifolds, based on an Empirical Bayes approach, in the spatiotemporal random field context. We apply the machinery of tight Gaussian measures in separable Hilbert spaces, exploiting the invariance property of covariance kernels under the group of isometries of the manifold. The identification of these measures with infinite-product Gaussian measures is then obtained via the eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator on the manifold. The involved time-varying angular spectra constitute the key tool for dimension reduction in the implementation of this regression approach, adopting a suitable truncation scheme depending on the functional sample size. The simulation study and synthetic data application undertaken illustrate the finite sample and asymptotic properties of the proposed functional regression predictor.

Causal generative models provide a principled framework for answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries from observational data. However, many deep causal models rely on highly expressive architectures with opaque mechanisms, limiting auditability in high-stakes domains. We propose KaCGM, a causal generative model for mixed-type tabular data where each structural equation is parameterized by a Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN). This decomposition enables direct inspection of learned causal mechanisms, including symbolic approximations and visualization of parent--child relationships, while preserving query-agnostic generative semantics. We introduce a validation pipeline based on distributional matching and independence diagnostics of inferred exogenous variables, allowing assessment using observational data alone. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks show competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. A real-world cardiovascular case study further demonstrates the extraction of simplified structural equations and interpretable causal effects. These results suggest that expressive causal generative modeling and functional transparency can be achieved jointly, supporting trustworthy deployment in tabular decision-making settings. Code: https://github.com/aalmodovares/kacgm