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We propose a flexible framework for modeling the predictive distributions of nonlinear, possibly multivariate time series. Our approach expresses a general predictive distribution in an appropriate generative representation that is based on a folklore result from measure theoretic probability. This representation provides a direct simulation-based approximation to the predictive distribution, enabling straightforward computation of forecasts for the conditional mean and variance, fan charts, value at risk, expected shortfall, joint tail risks, and other quantities of interest. We estimate this generative representation using a version of conditional generative adversarial networks and provide a formal statistical analysis of estimation under weak temporal dependence. Specifically, estimation is expressed as a particular minimax problem and we establish consistency of its approximate solutions in Hausdorff distance. The empirical relevance of the approach is illustrated using applications to equity returns, realized variance, and realized covariances. The proposed method is also computationally manageable, with estimation in our applications taking approximately one minute on a standard laptop.

In this piece, we reflect on AIES 2025, and outline the conversations and presentations from a discussion session on LLMs in the context of clinical usage and human rights. This is a crosspost from the latest issue of AI Matters, published by the ACM SIAGI. This year's conference on artificial intelligence, ethics and society (AIES) took place in the north of Madrid within the 180m-high tower block that forms the vertical campus of IE University. The event kicked off with a welcome from the chairs and organising committee members, with this opening session also featuring the conference best paper awards. Topics covered during the three-day event included mitigating bias, integrating AI into the workplace, evaluating LLMs in clinical settings, power dynamics in AI ecosystems, and dataset creation.

Here's what you need to know, from why the cruise ship outbreak won't spark the next pandemic to how hantavirus spreads. Now that more than 100 passengers aboard a hantavirus -stricken luxury cruise ship have been evacuated, with 18 Americans in biocontainment units in Nebraska and Georgia, health officials around the world are working to monitor more than two dozen individuals who left the cruise and anyone with whom they might have come in close contact. So far, all of the 11 reported hantavirus cases are among passengers or crew on the ship, the World Health Organization's director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference in Madrid on Tuesday. That includes three deaths resulting from the virus. Typically, hantaviruses are spread when contaminated rodent droppings and urine are stirred up in the air and breathed in.