Causal discovery with time series data remains a challenging yet increasingly important task across many scientific domains. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) and related methods have been proposed to study time series that are generated by dynamical systems, where traditional approaches like Granger causality are unreliable. However, CCM often yields inaccurate results depending upon the quality of the data. We propose the Tangent Space Causal Inference (TSCI) method for detecting causalities in dynamical systems. TSCI works by considering vector fields as explicit representations of the systems' dynamics and checks for the degree of synchronization between the learned vector fields. The TSCI approach is modelagnostic and can be used as a drop-in replacement for CCM and its generalizations. We first present a basic version of the TSCI algorithm, which is shown to be more effective than the basic CCM algorithm with very little additional computation.

Hybrid Reinforcement Learning (RL), where an agent learns from both an offline dataset and online explorations in an unknown environment, has garnered significant recent interest. A crucial question posed by Xie et al. (2022b) is whether hybrid RL can improve upon the existing lower bounds established for purely offline or online RL without requiring that the behavior policy visit every state and action the optimal policy does. While Li et al. (2023b) provided an affirmative answer for tabular PAC RL, the question remains unsettled for both the regretminimizing and non-tabular cases. In this work, building upon recent advancements in offline RL and reward-agnostic exploration, we develop computationally efficient algorithms for both PAC and regret-minimizing RL with linear function approximation, without requiring concentrability on the entire state-action space. We demonstrate that these algorithms achieve sharper error or regret bounds that are no worse than, and can improve on, the optimal sample complexity in offline RL (the first algorithm, for PAC RL) and online RL (the second algorithm, for regret-minimizing RL) in linear Markov decision processes (MDPs), regardless of the quality of the behavior policy. To our knowledge, this work establishes the tightest theoretical guarantees currently available for hybrid RL in linear MDPs.

Multi-fidelity modeling and learning is important in physical simulation related applications. It can leverage both low-fidelity and high-fidelity examples for training so as to reduce the cost of data generation yet still achieving good performance. While existing approaches only model finite, discrete fidelities, in practice, the feasible fidelity choice is often infinite, which can correspond to a continuous mesh spacing or finite element length. In this paper, we propose Infinite Fidelity Coregionalization (IFC). Given the data, our method can extract and exploit rich information within infinite, continuous fidelities to bolster the prediction accuracy. Our model can interpolate and/or extrapolate the predictions to novel fidelities that are not covered by the training data.

Standard deep neural networks often have excess non-linearity, making them susceptible to issues such as low adversarial robustness and gradient instability. Common methods to address these downstream issues, such as adversarial training, are expensive and often sacrifice predictive accuracy. In this work, we address the core issue of excess non-linearity via curvature, and demonstrate low-curvature neural networks (LCNNs) that obtain drastically lower curvature than standard models while exhibiting similar predictive performance. This leads to improved robustness and stable gradients, at a fraction of the cost of standard adversarial training. To achieve this, we decompose overall model curvature in terms of curvatures and slopes of its constituent layers. To enable efficient curvature minimization of constituent layers, we introduce two novel architectural components: first, a non-linearity called centered-softplus that is a stable variant of the softplus non-linearity, and second, a Lipschitz-constrained batch normalization layer. Our experiments show that LCNNs have lower curvature, more stable gradients and increased off-the-shelf adversarial robustness when compared to standard neural networks, all without affecting predictive performance. Our approach is easy to use and can be readily incorporated into existing neural network architectures. Code to implement our method and replicate our experiments is available at https://github.com/kylematoba/lcnn.

Despite extensive theoretical work on biologically plausible learning rules, clear evidence about whether and how such rules are implemented in the brain has been difficult to obtain. We consider biologically plausible supervised-and reinforcementlearning rules and ask whether changes in network activity during learning can be used to determine which learning rule is being used. Supervised learning requires a credit-assignment model estimating the mapping from neural activity to behavior, and, in a biological organism, this model will inevitably be an imperfect approximation of the ideal mapping, leading to a bias in the direction of the weight updates relative to the true gradient. Reinforcement learning, on the other hand, requires no credit-assignment model and tends to make weight updates following the true gradient direction. We derive a metric to distinguish between learning rules by observing changes in the network activity during learning, given that the mapping from brain to behavior is known by the experimenter. Because brain-machine interface (BMI) experiments allow for precise knowledge of this mapping, we model a cursor-control BMI task using recurrent neural networks, showing that learning rules can be distinguished in simulated experiments using only observations that a neuroscience experimenter would plausibly have access to.

The Bayesian two-step change point detection method is popular for the Hawkes process due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, the non-conjugacy between the point process likelihood and the prior requires most existing Bayesian two-step change point detection methods to rely on non-conjugate inference methods. These methods lack analytical expressions, leading to low computational efficiency and impeding timely change point detection. To address this issue, this work employs data augmentation to propose a conjugate Bayesian two-step change point detection method for the Hawkes process, which proves to be more accurate and efficient. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the superior effectiveness and efficiency of our method compared to baseline methods. Additionally, we conduct ablation studies to explore the robustness of our method concerning various hyperparameters.