The Only Way the U.S. Can Win the Tech War with China

Grand historical inflection points rarely take the form of long bureaucratic documents, but sometimes they do. On October 7th the Department of Commerce issued its revised policy on AI and semiconductor technology exports to China. The 139 pages of new export control regulations placed a de facto ban on exports to China of the advanced computer chips that power AI algorithms. Since more than 95% of such chips used in China are designed by U.S. semiconductor companies and therefore subject to U.S. export controls, loss of access to U.S. chips puts China's entire future as an AI superpower in jeopardy. AI was the top technology priority listed in the Chinese government's five-year economic plan for 2021-2026, so this action makes clear that the U.S. intends to block China from achieving its top technological goal. Ten days after the new policy came out, Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave a major speech in which he said, "We are at an inflection point.