Simulating the impact of cognitive biases on the mobility transition

In recent decades, the average daily distance traveled by the French population has increased considerably (from 5 km on average in the 1950s to 45 km on average in 2011 [33]), as has the number of personal cars (11,860 million cars in 1970 [5] compared to 38,3 million in 2021 [9, 19]). For example in Toulouse, cars concentrate 74% of the distances traveled by the inhabitants and contribute up to 88% to GHG emissions [30]. The evolution of mobility is therefore an essential question, in the context of the climate crisis but also in terms of public health: the negative impact of a sedentary lifestyle [6], road accidents, air pollution and sound pollution [28]. Indeed, 40000 deaths per year are attributable to exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and 7000 deaths per year attributable to exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), i.e. 7% and 1% of the total annual mortality [16]; this report also concludes that the 2-month lockdown of spring 2020 in France made it possible to avoid 2300 deaths by reducing exposure to particles, and 1200 more deaths by reducing exposure to nitrogen dioxide. This shows that public policies and individual behaviour changes (modal shift towards cycling, more extensive teleworking) can have an impact on public health.