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Occam's razor has lost its edge. Can we sharpen our search for truth?

New Scientist

Occam's razor has lost its edge. Can we sharpen our search for truth? Seeking out the simplest, most elegant explanations has served scientists well for centuries, but cognitive scientist Marina Dubova's experiments are revealing better ways to uncover reality Limited by the knowledge of his time, the ancient Greek astronomer Ptolemy imagined that the planets and sun of our solar system orbited Earth. Every new observation that pushed against this image required a slight tweak to that theory, until centuries later Nicolaus Copernicus's reimagining toppled it once and for all. A more elegant explanation proposed that all the planets orbited the sun, kicking off a scientific revolution that changed our understanding of the entire universe.


What AI Will Do to Art

The Atlantic - Technology

This story appears in the August 2026 print edition. While some stories from this issue are not yet available to read online, you can explore more from the magazine . Get our editors' guide to what matters in the world, delivered to your inbox every weekday. Holly Herndon and Mat Dryhurst believe the future doesn't have to belong to slop. The art was way too heavy. In mid-March, the artists Holly Herndon and Mat Dryhurst were preparing an installation to coincide with the Venice Biennale, the prestigious international art festival, but the execution was becoming tricky. They wanted to suspend sculptures of a trippy cityscape upside down from the ceiling of an 18th-century palazzo. But the construction material they envisioned-- 3-D-printed sand--would weigh tons, which was more than the antique building could bear. The sculptures, they realized, might fall and crush someone. Check out more from this issue and find your next story to read. This was a rather analog problem for a married couple widely seen as technological prophets. Herndon, 46, and Dryhurst, 41, have reached the upper echelons of the art world thanks to a media-spanning output--music, images, software, and reams of commentary--with a cybernetic bent. They are high culture's most influential exponents of artificial intelligence, an invention that many people believe spells doom for the arts but that they think could lead to a renaissance. I met them on a cold, bright Tuesday in Berlin.


Liquidity-Based Audit of Algorithmic Trading Strategies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Market microstructure has long classified trading activity by its informational role: an informed trader demands liquidity by trading in the direction of private information, while a market maker supplies liquidity by absorbing that order flow and earning the spread in compensation Kyle (1985); Glosten and Milgrom (1985). This classification is typically recovered from the data the classifier requires: signed order flow, quote revisions, or the sequential-trade structure of the market. The classification is harder to apply to an algorithmic strategy whose internal logic is unobservable. However, the signals or optimization problems generating the decisions of a typical quantitative fund are not visible, even though the trades and reported positions may be available. This paper shows that the liquidity role of such a strategy (consumer or provider) can be recovered from realized portfolio costs and trade decisions alone, without observing quotes, order flow, or any other microstructure-specific signal.


Agent confidence on the technical frontier

MIT Technology Review

A ranking of 101 agent tasks reveals where workflows are trending and where connected intelligence is critical. Enterprise investment in AI is booming. Gartner is calling 2026 an " inflection year " for organizations to align their AI projects with strategic business objectives. As the pressure to prove ROI mounts, executives and technology leaders are looking to agentic AI to drive the measurable financial outcomes their businesses seek. A prime opportunity for AI agents exists in the tech function, where IT infrastructure costs are projected to grow two to three times by 2030, even as budgets remain unchanged, according to McKinsey . And in the last 18 months, tech teams--the engineers, developers, architects, and other practitioners who are building, deploying, and continually improving their organizations' infrastructure and applications--are clearly putting agents to work.


SYMPHONY: Synergistic Multi-agent Planning with Heterogeneous Language Model Assembly

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recent advancements have increasingly focused on leveraging large language models (LLMs) to construct autonomous agents for complex problem-solving tasks. However, existing approaches predominantly employ a single-agent framework to generate search branches and estimate rewards during Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) planning. This single-agent paradigm inherently limits exploration capabilities, often resulting in insufficient diversity among generated branches and suboptimal planning performance.


Model Reconciliation via Cost-Optimal Explanations in Probabilistic Logic Programming

Neural Information Processing Systems

In human-AI interaction, effective communication relies on aligning the AI agent's model with the human user's mental model, a process known as model reconciliation. However, existing model reconciliation approaches predominantly assume deterministic models, overlooking the fact that human knowledge is often uncertain or probabilistic. To bridge this gap, we present a probabilistic model reconciliation framework that resolves inconsistencies in MPE outcome probabilities between an agent's and a user's models. Our approach is built on probabilistic logic programming (PLP) using ProbLog, where explanations are generated as cost-optimal model updates that reconcile these probabilistic differences. We develop two search algorithms -- a generic baseline and an optimized version. The latter is guided by theoretical insights and further extended with greedy and weighted variants to enhance scalability and efficiency. Our approach is validated through a user study on explanation types and computational experiments showing that the optimized version consistently outperforms the generic baseline.


How to Train Your LLM Web Agent: A Statistical Diagnosis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large language model (LLM) agents for web interfaces have advanced rapidly, yet open-source systems still lag behind proprietary agents. Bridging this gap is key to enabling customizable, efficient, and privacy-preserving agents. Two challenges hinder progress: the reproducibility issues in RL and LLM agent training, where results often depend on sensitive factors like seeds and decoding parameters, and the focus of prior work on single-step tasks, overlooking the complexities of web-based, multi-step decision-making. We address these gaps by providing a statistically driven study of training LLM agents for web tasks. Our two-stage pipeline combines imitation learning from a Llama 3.3 70B teacher with on-policy fine-tuning via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on a Llama 3.1 8B student. Through 240 configuration sweeps and rigorous bootstrapping, we chart the first compute allocation curve for open-source LLM web agents. Our findings show that dedicating one-third of compute to teacher traces and the rest to RL improves MiniWoB++ success by 6 points and closes 60\% of the gap to GPT-4o on WorkArena, while cutting GPU costs by 45\%. We introduce a principled hyperparameter sensitivity analysis, offering actionable guidelines for robust and cost-effective agent training.


LOPT: Learning Optimal Pigovian Tax in Sequential Social Dilemmas

Neural Information Processing Systems

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has emerged as a powerful framework for modeling autonomous agents that independently optimize their individual objectives. However, in mixed-motive MARL environments, rational self-interested behaviors often lead to collectively suboptimal outcomes situations commonly referred to as social dilemmas. A key challenge in addressing social dilemmas lies in accurately quantifying and representing them in a numerical form that captures how self-interested agent behaviors impact social welfare. To address this challenge, \textit{externalities} in the economic concept is adopted and extended to denote the unaccounted-for impact of one agent's actions on others, as a means to rigorously quantify social dilemmas.


Improving Regret Approximation for Unsupervised Dynamic Environment Generation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Unsupervised Environment Design (UED) seeks to automatically generate training curricula for reinforcement learning (RL) agents, with the goal of improving generalisation and zero-shot performance. However, designing effective curricula remains a difficult problem, particularly in settings where small subsets of environment parameterisations result in significant increases in the complexity of the required policy. Current methods struggle with a difficult credit assignment problem and rely on regret approximations that fail to identify challenging levels, both of which are compounded as the size of the environment grows. We propose Dynamic Environment Generation for UED (DEGen) to enable a denser level generator reward signal, reducing the difficulty of credit assignment and allowing for UED to scale to larger environment sizes. We also introduce a new regret approximation, Maximised Negative Advantage (MNA), as a significantly improved metric to optimise for, that better identifies more challenging levels. We show empirically that MNA outperforms current regret approximations and when combined with DEGen, consistently outperforms existing methods, especially as the size of the environment grows. We have made all our code available here: https://github.


Strategic Hypothesis Testing

Neural Information Processing Systems

We examine hypothesis testing within a principal-agent framework, where a strategic agent, holding private beliefs about the effectiveness of a product, submits data to a principal who decides on approval. The principal employs a hypothesis testing rule, aiming to pick a p-value threshold that balances false positives and false negatives while anticipating the agent's incentive to maximize expected profitability. Building on prior work, we develop a game-theoretic model that captures how the agent's participation and reporting behavior respond to the principal's statistical decision rule. Despite the complexity of the interaction, we show that the principal's errors exhibit clear monotonic behavior when segmented by an efficiently computable critical p-value threshold, leading to an interpretable characterization of their optimal p-value threshold.