Existing multi-expert learning-to-defer surrogates are statistically consistent, yet they can underfit, suppress useful experts, or degrade as the expert pool grows. We trace these failures to a shared architectural choice: casting classes and experts as actions inside one augmented prediction geometry. Consistency governs the population target; it says nothing about how the surrogate distributes gradient mass during training. We analyze five surrogates along both axes and show that each trades a fix on one for a failure on the other. We then introduce a decoupled surrogate that estimates the class posterior with a softmax and each expert utility with an independent sigmoid. It admits an $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bound whose constant is $J$-independent for fixed per-expert weight $β{=}λ/J$, and its gradients are free of the amplification, starvation, and coupling pathologies of the augmented family. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10H, and Covertype confirm that the decoupled surrogate is the only method that avoids amplification under redundancy, preserves rare specialists, and consistently improves over a standalone classifier across all settings.

We propose a method for non-parametric conditional distribution estimation based on partitioning covariate-sorted observations into contiguous bins and using the within-bin empirical CDF as the predictive distribution. Bin boundaries are chosen to minimise the total leave-one-out Continuous Ranked Probability Score (LOO-CRPS), which admits a closed-form cost function with $O(n^2 \log n)$ precomputation and $O(n^2)$ storage; the globally optimal $K$-partition is recovered by a dynamic programme in $O(n^2 K)$ time. Minimisation of within-sample LOO-CRPS turns out to be inappropriate for selecting $K$ as it results in in-sample optimism. We instead select $K$ by $K$-fold cross-validation of test CRPS, which yields a U-shaped criterion with a well-defined minimum. Having selected $K^*$ and fitted the full-data partition, we form two complementary predictive objects: the Venn prediction band and a conformal prediction set based on CRPS as the nonconformity score, which carries a finite-sample marginal coverage guarantee at any prescribed level $\varepsilon$. The conformal prediction is transductive and data-efficient, as all observations are used for both partitioning and p-value calculation, with no need to reserve a hold-out set. On real benchmarks against split-conformal competitors (Gaussian split conformal, CQR, CQR-QRF, and conformalized isotonic distributional regression), the method produces substantially narrower prediction intervals while maintaining near-nominal coverage.

Feature maps associated with positive definite kernels play a central role in kernel methods and learning theory, where regularity properties such as Lipschitz continuity are closely related to robustness and stability guarantees. Despite their importance, explicit characterizations of the Lipschitz constant of kernel feature maps are available only in a limited number of cases. In this paper, we study the Lipschitz regularity of feature maps associated with integral kernels under differentiability assumptions. We first provide sufficient conditions ensuring Lipschitz continuity and derive explicit formulas for the corresponding Lipschitz constants. We then identify a condition under which the feature map fails to be Lipschitz continuous and apply these results to several important classes of kernels. For infinite width two-layer neural network with isotropic Gaussian weight distributions, we show that the Lipschitz constant of the associated kernel can be expressed as the supremum of a two-dimensional integral, leading to an explicit characterization for the Gaussian kernel and the ReLU random neural network kernel. We also study continuous and shift-invariant kernels such as Gaussian, Laplace, and Matérn kernels, which admit an interpretation as neural network with cosine activation function. In this setting, we prove that the feature map is Lipschitz continuous if and only if the weight distribution has a finite second-order moment, and we then derive its Lipschitz constant. Finally, we raise an open question concerning the asymptotic behavior of the convergence of the Lipschitz constant in finite width neural networks. Numerical experiments are provided to support this behavior.

The use of transfer learning within Bayesian optimization addresses the disadvantages of the so-called \textit{cold start} problem by using source data to aid in the optimization of a target problem. We present a method that leverages an ensemble of surrogate models using transfer learning and integrates it in a constrained Bayesian optimization framework. We identify challenges particular to aircraft design optimization related to heterogeneous design variables and constraints. We propose the use of a partial-least-squares dimension reduction algorithm to address design space heterogeneity, and a \textit{meta} data surrogate selection method to address constraint heterogeneity. Numerical benchmark problems and an aircraft conceptual design optimization problem are used to demonstrate the proposed methods. Results show significant improvement in convergence in early optimization iterations compared to standard Bayesian optimization, with improved prediction accuracy for both objective and constraint surrogate models.

Aircraft design relies heavily on solving challenging and computationally expensive Multidisciplinary Design Optimization problems. In this context, there has been growing interest in multi-fidelity models for Bayesian optimization to improve the MDO process by balancing computational cost and accuracy through the combination of high- and low-fidelity simulation models, enabling efficient exploration of the design process at a minimal computational effort. In the existing literature, fidelity selection focuses only on the objective function to decide how to integrate multiple fidelity levels, balancing precision and computational cost using variance reduction criteria. In this work, we propose novel multi-fidelity selection strategies. Specifically, we demonstrate how incorporating information from both the objective and the constraints can further reduce computational costs without compromising the optimality of the solution. We validate the proposed multi-fidelity optimization strategy by applying it to four analytical test cases, showcasing its effectiveness. The proposed method is used to efficiently solve a challenging aircraft wing aero-structural design problem. The proposed setting uses a linear vortex lattice method and a finite element method for the aerodynamic and structural analysis respectively. We show that employing our proposed multi-fidelity approach leads to $86\%$ to $200\%$ more constraint compliant solutions given a limited budget compared to the state-of-the-art approach.

Learning-to-Defer routes each input to the expert that minimizes expected cost, but it assumes that the information available to every expert is fixed at decision time. Many modern systems violate this assumption: after selecting an expert, one may also choose what additional information that expert should receive, such as retrieved documents, tool outputs, or escalation context. We study this problem and call it Learning-to-Defer with advice. We show that a broad family of natural separated surrogates, which learn routing and advice with distinct heads, is inconsistent even in the smallest non-trivial setting. We then introduce an augmented surrogate that operates on the composite expert--advice action space and prove an $\mathcal{H}$-consistency guarantee together with an excess-risk transfer bound, yielding recovery of the Bayes-optimal policy in the limit. Experiments on tabular, language, and multi-modal tasks show that the resulting method improves over standard Learning-to-Defer while adapting its advice-acquisition behavior to the cost regime; a synthetic benchmark confirms the failure mode predicted for separated surrogates.

The interception of agile aerial targets using autonomous drones is a challenging and increasingly relevant problem in robotics and security. The increasing presence of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in unauthorized, restricted airspaces poses significant safety and security risks and has spurred interest in developing effective interception strategies [1] In particular, scenarios such as airspace protection, infrastructure security, and event safety require the ability to capture or neutralize unauthorized drones with high precision and minimal collateral risk. Deploying interceptor drones equipped with nets is apromising approach, but it demandsadvanced control capabilities to match or exceed the agility of evasive targets. Traditional interception methods often rely on accurate models, preplanned strategies, or predictable target behaviour [2]. However, modern quadrotor drones can perform highly dynamic manoeuvres, and will actively evade capture, rendering their trajectories unpredictable and challenging the effectiveness of classical methods [3].

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Thought, the LLM can verbalize that the unknown city is Paris and use this fact to answer downstream questions.