An evaluation of time series forecasting models on water consumption data: A case study of Greece

Nowadays, the ever-increasing urbanization and industrialization has led to a growing of water demand and a decrease in water supply and resources, thus creating a huge divergence between demand and supply. Therefore, water resources can play an important role in regional socio-economic and environmental development [Setegn, 2015]. The effective distribution of water resources in both civil and industry life indicates the levels of urban sustainability and social inclusiveness. Proper water distribution and forecasting can act as a baseline for achieving optimal resource allocation and mitigating the gap between supply and demand, thus improving operations, planning and management. In Greece, the recent years, the need for accurate water demand forecasting has become particularly important [Bithas and Chrysostomos, 2006]. The systematically extraction of non-renewable ground water, the insertion of chemicals for water purification, the drought caused by climate changes in the region of the Mediterranean and the sudden rise of water demand due to the increase of refugees and migrants has created many environmental issues on the quantity and quality of the water resources as well as previously unseen socio-economic and political problems. Therefore, an accurate forecasting of water consumption can be a decisive factor for proper planning, management and optimization. Water consumption data are seen as time series, since a measurement of water consumption levels is taken periodically (weekly, monthly, quarterly).