STGDPM:Vessel Trajectory Prediction with Spatio-Temporal Graph Diffusion Probabilistic Model

Vessel trajectory prediction is a critical component for ensuring maritime traffic safety and avoiding collisions. Due to the inherent uncertainty in vessel behavior, trajectory prediction systems must adopt a multimodal approach to accurately model potential future motion states. However, existing vessel trajectory prediction methods lack the ability to comprehensively model behavioral multi-modality. To better capture multimodal behavior in interactive scenarios, we propose modeling interactions as dynamic graphs, replacing traditional aggregation-based techniques that rely on vessel states. By leveraging the natural multimodal capabilities of diffusion models, we frame the trajectory prediction task as an inverse process of motion uncertainty diffusion, wherein uncertainties across potential navigational areas are progressively eliminated until the desired trajectories is produced.