Look Who's Talking: Interpretable Machine Learning for Assessing Italian SMEs Credit Default

The economy of the European Union (EU) is deeply grounded into Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). SMEs represent about 99.8% of the active enterprises in the EU-28 non-financial business sector (NFBS), accounting for almost 60% of value-added within the NFBS and fostering the workforce of the EU with two out of every three jobs (European Commission, 2019a). Thus, there is a wide literature covering various economic aspects of SMEs, with a particular attention to default prediction (for an up-to-date review see Ciampi et al., 2021), which is of interest not only for scholars but also for practitioners such as financial intermediaries and for policy makers in their effort to support SMEs and to ease credit constraints to which they are naturally exposed (Andries et al., 2018; Cornille et al., 2019). Whether it is for private credit-risk assessment or for public funding, independently on the type of data imputed to measure the health status of a firm, prediction of default should success in two aspects: maximise correct classification and clarify the role of the variables involved in the process. Most of the times, the contributions based on Machine Learning (ML) techniques neglect the latter aspect, being rather focused on the former, often with better results with respect to parametric techniques that provide, on the contrary, a clear framework for interpretation.