Improving the accuracy of food security predictions by integrating conflict data

Food security (FS) is a complex and multifaceted problem, influenced by several factors such as weather events, economic shocks, and natural disasters. Understanding the dynamics of food security is crucial for effective policymaking and humanitarian efforts. While conflicts and violent events increasingly stand out as key drivers of food crises[1], the depth of their impact remains largely underexplored. Examining the quantitative aspects of this impact is essential for developing more targeted interventions and strategies to address the complex interplay between conflict and food security. Existing research tends to be qualitative in nature (Kemmerling et al.2022; Brown et al. 2020; Brown et al. 2021), leaving a significant gap in understanding the quantitative aspects of how conflicts impact FS levels. By delving into quantitative analyses, we can not only enhance our comprehension of the magnitude of the problem but also pave the way for evidence-based decision-making in efforts to alleviate food insecurity in conflict-affected regions. Regarding the qualitative study of conflicts and FS, Kemmerling et al.(2022)[2] provided a comprehensive explanation on how violence and armed conflicts impact FS through destruction, displacement, financing of conflicts and food being used as a weapon. The authors call for better conflict data collection, and an increase in focus on the study of conflicts early warnings.