A Machine Learning Approach for Detecting Students at Risk of Low Academic Achievement

We aim to predict whether a primary school student will perform in the `below standard' band of a national standardized test. We exploit a data set containing test performance on the National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN); a test given annually to all Australian school students in grades 3, 5, 7, and 9. We separate the analysis into students in grade 5 and above, for which previous achievement may be used as a predictor; and students in grade 3, which must rely on family- and school-level predictors only. We train and compare a set of classifiers for reading and numeracy learning areas respectively. The classifiers achieve good predictive power in terms of area under the ROC curve, suggesting that it is feasible for schools to more accurately screen a large number of students for academic risk.