Patient Dropout Prediction in Virtual Health: A Multimodal Dynamic Knowledge Graph and Text Mining Approach

Virtual health has been acclaimed as a transformative force in healthcare delivery. Yet, its dropout issue is critical that leads to poor health outcomes, increased health, societal, and economic costs. Timely prediction of patient dropout enables stakeholders to take proactive steps to address patients' concerns, potentially improving retention rates. In virtual health, the information asymmetries inherent in its delivery format, between different stakeholders, and across different healthcare delivery systems hinder the performance of existing predictive methods. To resolve those information asymmetries, we propose a Multimodal Dynamic Knowledge-driven Dropout Prediction (MDKDP) framework that learns implicit and explicit knowledge from doctor-patient dialogues and the dynamic and complex networks of various stakeholders in both online and offline healthcare delivery systems. We evaluate MDKDP by partnering with one of the largest virtual health platforms in China. MDKDP improves the F1-score by 3.26 percentage points relative to the best benchmark. Comprehensive robustness analyses show that integrating stakeholder attributes, knowledge dynamics, and compact bilinear pooling significantly improves the performance. Our work provides significant implications for healthcare IT by revealing the value of mining relations and knowledge across different service modalities. Practically, MDKDP offers a novel design artifact for virtual health platforms in patient dropout management.