A Machine Learning Model for Long-Term Power Generation Forecasting at Bidding Zone Level

--The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or maintenance planning). For this purpose, many physical models have been employed, and more recently many statistical or machine learning algorithms, and data-driven methods in general, are becoming subject of intense research. While generally the power research community focuses on power forecasting at the level of single plants, in a short future horizon of time, in this time we are interested in aggregated macro-area power generation (i.e., in a territory of size greater than 100000 km Real data are used to validate the proposed forecasting methodology on a test set of several months. A. Motivations As the penetration level of Renewable Energy (RE) sources is growing worldwide to meet ever tightening sustainability goals [1], the intermittent and uncertain nature of RE is posing increasing challenges to efficiently manage a power grid, eventually endangering its own stability. In this context, the availability of accurate forecasts of power generation from RE may mitigate the impact of the increasing penetration level and improve the operation of power systems [2].