A Global Transport Capacity Risk Prediction Method for Rail Transit Based on Gaussian Bayesian Network

Rail transit plays an increasingly important role in modern Since transport capacity risks at the rail transit network level urban transportation with its advantages of large capacity, good have a large influence surface and propagation inertia, different punctuality, high safety, environmental friendliness and low cost, passenger flow conditions will also have different impacts on the and has become the backbone and important support of modern safety of the network, if effective preventive measures are not transportation. Although the safety of rail transit is higher than taken, once the risk propagation starts, it can easily lead to a that of conventional road traffic, due to the large scale of rail rapid decline in the safety of the whole network and eventually transit network, heavy transportation tasks and close coupling lead to safety accidents. Therefore, the prediction of transport between lines, once a failure or safety accident occurs, it will capacity risk on the basis of transport capacity risk assessment have a great impact on urban transportation. For example, on has important practical significance for the safe operation of rail December 22, 2009, around 7:00 a.m., a collision occurred on transit network.