mape
Generative Augmented Inference
Lu, Cheng, Wang, Mengxin, Zhang, Dennis J., Zhang, Heng
Data-driven operations management often relies on parameters estimated from costly human-generated labels. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and other AI systems offer inexpensive auxiliary data, but introduce a new challenge: AI outputs are not direct observations of the target outcomes, but could involve high-dimensional representations with complex and unknown relationships to human labels. Conventional methods leverage AI predictions as direct proxies for true labels, which can be inefficient or unreliable when this relationship is weak or misspecified. We propose Generative Augmented Inference (GAI), a general framework that incorporates AI-generated outputs as informative features for estimating models of human-labeled outcomes. GAI uses an orthogonal moment construction that enables consistent estimation and valid inference with flexible, nonparametric relationship between LLM-generated outputs and human labels. We establish asymptotic normality and show a "safe default" property: relative to human-data-only estimators, GAI weakly improves estimation efficiency under arbitrary auxiliary signals and yields strict gains whenever the auxiliary information is predictive. Empirically, GAI outperforms benchmarks across diverse settings. In conjoint analysis with weak auxiliary signals, GAI reduces estimation error by about 50% and lowers human labeling requirements by over 75%. In retail pricing, where all methods access the same auxiliary inputs, GAI consistently outperforms alternative estimators, highlighting the value of its construction rather than differences in information. In health insurance choice, it cuts labeling requirements by over 90% while maintaining decision accuracy. Across applications, GAI improves confidence interval coverage without inflating width. Overall, GAI provides a principled and scalable approach to integrating AI-generated information.
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
- North America > United States > Texas (0.04)
- North America > United States > California (0.04)
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- Research Report > Experimental Study (1.00)
- Overview (0.92)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.68)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language > Large Language Model (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (0.68)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning > Regression (0.46)
- North America > United States > Texas (0.05)
- North America > United States > New Hampshire (0.04)
- North America > United States > Massachusetts (0.04)
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M3Net: A Multi-Metric Mixture of Experts Network Digital Twin with Graph Neural Networks
Guda, Blessed, Joe-Wong, Carlee
Abstract--The rise of 5G/6G network technologies promises to enable applications like autonomous vehicles and virtual reality, resulting in a significant increase in connected devices and necessarily complicating network management. Even worse, these applications often have strict, yet heterogeneous, performance requirements across metrics like latency and reliability. Much recent work has thus focused on developing the ability to predict network performance. However, traditional methods for network modeling, like discrete event simulators and emulation, often fail to balance accuracy and scalability. Network Digital Twins (NDTs), augmented by machine learning, present a viable solution by creating virtual replicas of physical networks for real-time simulation and analysis. State-of-the-art models, however, fall short of full-fledged NDTs, as they often focus only on a single performance metric or simulated network data. We introduce M3Net, a Multi-Metric Mixture-of-experts (MoE) NDT that uses a graph neural network architecture to estimate multiple performance metrics from an expanded set of network state data in a range of scenarios. We show that M3Net significantly enhances the accuracy of flow delay predictions by reducing the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) from 20.06% to 17.39%, while also achieving 66.47% and 78.7% accuracy on jitter and packets dropped for each flow. Emerging 5G and 6G mobile network architectures aim to support new applications like autonomous vehicles and mixed reality [1], [2], both of which require significantly expanded network capabilities. These and other new applications envisioned as part of the 5G and 6G network ecosystem will lead to massive numbers of connected devices with heterogeneous performance expectations, which increases the complexity and cost of managing communication networks [2]. For example, interactive applications like augmented reality generally require response latencies under 200ms [3], while safety-critical applications like autonomous vehicles might require highly reliable delivery of high-priority packets [4].
- Research Report > New Finding (0.46)
- Research Report > Promising Solution (0.34)
- Telecommunications > Networks (0.90)
- Information Technology (0.88)
A Prescriptive Framework for Determining Optimal Days for Short-Term Traffic Counts
Mukwaya, Arthur, Kasamala, Nancy, Gyimah, Nana Kankam, Mwakalonge, Judith, Comert, Gurcan, Siuhi, Saidi, Ruganuza, Denis, Ngotonie, Mark
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) mandates that state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) collect reliable Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) data. However, many U.S. DOTs struggle to obtain accurate AADT, especially for unmonitored roads. While continuous count (CC) stations offer accurate traffic volume data, their implementation is expensive and difficult to deploy widely, compelling agencies to rely on short-duration traffic counts. This study proposes a machine learning framework, the first to our knowledge, to identify optimal representative days for conducting short count (SC) data collection to improve AADT prediction accuracy. Using 2022 and 2023 traffic volume data from the state of Texas, we compare two scenarios: an 'optimal day' approach that iteratively selects the most informative days for AADT estimation and a 'no optimal day' baseline reflecting current practice by most DOTs. To align with Texas DOT's traffic monitoring program, continuous count data were utilized to simulate the 24 hour short counts. The actual field short counts were used to enhance feature engineering through using a leave-one-out (LOO) technique to generate unbiased representative daily traffic features across similar road segments. Our proposed methodology outperforms the baseline across the top five days, with the best day (Day 186) achieving lower errors (RMSE: 7,871.15, MAE: 3,645.09, MAPE: 11.95%) and higher R^2 (0.9756) than the baseline (RMSE: 11,185.00, MAE: 5,118.57, MAPE: 14.42%, R^2: 0.9499). This research offers DOTs an alternative to conventional short-duration count practices, improving AADT estimation, supporting Highway Performance Monitoring System compliance, and reducing the operational costs of statewide traffic data collection.
- Transportation > Infrastructure & Services (1.00)
- Transportation > Ground > Road (1.00)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (1.00)
Leveraging Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Store Sales Forecasting
This work evaluates the effectiveness of spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for multi-store retail sales forecasting and compares their performance against ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost baselines. Using weekly sales data from 45 Walmart stores, we construct a relational forecasting framework that models inter-store dependencies through a learned adaptive graph. The proposed STGNN predicts log-differenced sales and reconstructs final values through a residual path, enabling stable training and improved generalisation. Experiments show that STGNN achieves the lowest overall forecasting error, outperforming all baselines in Normalised Total Absolute Error, P90 MAPE, and variance of MAPE across stores. Analysis of the learned adjacency matrix reveals meaningful functional store clusters and high-influence nodes that emerge without geographic metadata. These results demonstrate that relational structure significantly improves forecast quality in interconnected retail environments and establishes STGNNs as a robust modelling choice for multi-store demand prediction.
- North America > Trinidad and Tobago > Trinidad > Arima > Arima (0.29)
- Asia > India > Maharashtra (0.15)
- North America > United States > California > San Francisco County (0.14)
TTF: A Trapezoidal Temporal Fusion Framework for LTV Forecasting in Douyin
Wan, Yibing, Guan, Zhengxiong, Zhang, Chaoli, Li, Xiaoyang, Xu, Lai, Jia, Beibei, Zheng, Zhenzhe, Wu, Fan
In the user growth scenario, Internet companies invest heavily in paid acquisition channels to acquire new users. But sustainable growth depends on acquired users' generating lifetime value (LTV) exceeding customer acquisition cost (CAC). In order to maximize LTV/CAC ratio, it is crucial to predict channel-level LTV in an early stage for further optimization of budget allocation. The LTV forecasting problem is significantly different from traditional time series forecasting problems, and there are three main challenges. Firstly, it is an unaligned multi-time series forecasting problem that each channel has a number of LTV series of different activation dates. Secondly, to predict in the early stage, it faces the imbalanced short-input long-output (SILO) challenge. Moreover, compared with the commonly used time series datasets, the real LTV series are volatile and non-stationary, with more frequent fluctuations and higher variance. In this work, we propose a novel framework called Trapezoidal Temporal Fusion (TTF) to address the above challenges. We introduce a trapezoidal multi-time series module to deal with data unalignment and SILO challenges, and output accurate predictions with a multi-tower structure called MT-FusionNet. The framework has been deployed to the online system for Douyin. Compared to the previously deployed online model, MAPEp decreased by 4.3%, and MAPEa decreased by 3.2%, where MAPEp denotes the point-wise MAPE of the LTV curve and MAPEa denotes the MAPE of the aggregated LTV.
CASPER: Cross-modal Alignment of Spatial and single-cell Profiles for Expression Recovery
Kumar, Amit, Kaur, Maninder, Mall, Raghvendra, Gupta, Sukrit
Spatial Transcriptomics enables mapping of gene expression within its native tissue context, but current platforms measure only a limited set of genes due to experimental constraints and excessive costs. To overcome this, computational models integrate Single-Cell RNA Sequencing data with Spatial Transcriptomics to predict unmeasured genes. We propose CASPER, a cross-attention based framework that predicts unmeasured gene expression in Spatial Transcriptomics by leveraging centroid-level representations from Single-Cell RNA Sequencing. We performed rigorous testing over four state-of-the-art Spatial Transcriptomics/Single-Cell RNA Sequencing dataset pairs across four existing baseline models. CASPER shows significant improvement in nine out of the twelve metrics for our experiments. This work paves the way for further work in Spatial Transcriptomics to Single-Cell RNA Sequencing modality translation. The code for CASPER is available at https://github.com/AI4Med-Lab/CASPER.
- Health & Medicine > Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Neurology (0.46)
LAD-BNet: Lag-Aware Dual-Branch Networks for Real-Time Energy Forecasting on Edge Devices
Real-time energy forecasting on edge devices represents a major challenge for smart grid optimization and intelligent buildings. We present LAD-BNet (Lag-Aware Dual-Branch Network), an innovative neural architecture optimized for edge inference with Google Coral TPU. Our hybrid approach combines a branch dedicated to explicit exploitation of temporal lags with a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) featuring dilated convolutions, enabling simultaneous capture of short and long-term dependencies. Tested on real energy consumption data with 10-minute temporal resolution, LAD-BNet achieves 14.49% MAPE at 1-hour horizon with only 18ms inference time on Edge TPU, representing an 8-12 x acceleration compared to CPU. The multi-scale architecture enables predictions up to 12 hours with controlled performance degradation. Our model demonstrates a 2.39% improvement over LSTM baselines and 3.04% over pure TCN architectures, while maintaining a 180MB memory footprint suitable for embedded device constraints. These results pave the way for industrial applications in real-time energy optimization, demand management, and operational planning.
- North America > Trinidad and Tobago > Trinidad > Arima > Arima (0.04)
- Europe > France > Occitanie > Haute-Garonne > Toulouse (0.04)
- Information Technology (1.00)
- Energy > Power Industry (0.89)
FoodRL: A Reinforcement Learning Ensembling Framework For In-Kind Food Donation Forecasting
Sharma, Esha, Davis, Lauren, Ivy, Julie, Chi, Min
Food banks are crucial for alleviating food insecurity, but their effectiveness hinges on accurately forecasting highly volatile in-kind donations to ensure equitable and efficient resource distribution. Traditional forecasting models often fail to maintain consistent accuracy due to unpredictable fluctuations and concept drift driven by seasonal variations and natural disasters such as hurricanes in the Southeastern U.S. and wildfires in the West Coast. To address these challenges, we propose FoodRL, a novel reinforcement learning (RL) based metalearning framework that clusters and dynamically weights diverse forecasting models based on recent performance and contextual information. Evaluated on multi-year data from two structurally distinct U.S. food banks-one large regional West Coast food bank affected by wildfires and another state-level East Coast food bank consistently impacted by hurricanes, FoodRL consistently outperforms baseline methods, particularly during periods of disruption or decline. By delivering more reliable and adaptive forecasts, FoodRL can facilitate the redistribution of food equivalent to 1.7 million additional meals annually, demonstrating its significant potential for social impact as well as adaptive ensemble learning for humanitarian supply chains.
- North America > United States > Michigan > Washtenaw County > Ann Arbor (0.14)
- North America > Trinidad and Tobago > Trinidad > Arima > Arima (0.05)
- North America > United States > North Carolina > Wake County > Raleigh (0.04)
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- Banking & Finance > Trading (1.00)
- Social Sector (0.87)