Just How Smart is Artificial Intelligence?

Over the last few months, I've noticed a significant reduction in the heady optimism of articles and opinion pieces in the press on the subject of artificial intelligence. In fact, many are now questioning the timescales given by manufacturers for the introduction of high-profile applications such as autonomous vehicles based on AI. If you are of a certain age, you might feel we've been here before… Unlike most other new technologies, artificial intelligence and robotics have gone through more than one'hype cycle' – overexcitement at the possibilities, with rapid development followed by a reality-check and a period of disappointment (the so-called AI Winter) before the next'breakthrough'. A new technology introduction, the invention of the airplane for example, normally works from the outset. The Wright brothers' first effort actually flew; not very far it's true, but it did achieve what its designers wanted and impressed the general public. Sure, visionaries saw the potential and I've no doubt there was much talk about a future of mass travel over large distances – early 20th century newspaper hype – long before it became a reality. Aircraft development has been an almost continuous process since then, with dreams becoming reality at a breathless pace culminating in the supersonic Concorde and vertical take-off/landing (VTOL) military jets. Communication is another example: we've gone from a basic voice telephone network in the 1950s to the Smartphone and the Internet in less than 50 years.