Machine Learning Prediction of Treatment Response to Antidepressants

Question Can machine learning models predict improvement of various depressive symptoms with antidepressant treatment based on pretreatment symptom scores and electroencephalographic measures? Findings In this prognostic study, using the machine learning approach of gradient-boosted decision trees, the ElecTreeScore algorithm could reliably distinguish the patients who responded to treatment from those who did not based on various depressive symptoms using pretreatment symptom scores and electroencephalographic features (using the cross-validation approach on 518 patients). Meaning Machine learning approaches that include pretreatment symptom scores and electroencephalographic features may help predict which depressive symptoms will improve with antidepressants. Importance Despite the high prevalence and potential outcomes of major depressive disorder, whether and how patients will respond to antidepressant medications is not easily predicted. Objective To identify the extent to which a machine learning approach, using gradient-boosted decision trees, can predict acute improvement for individual depressive symptoms with antidepressants based on pretreatment symptom scores and electroencephalographic (EEG) measures. Design, Setting, and Participants This prognostic study analyzed data collected as part of the International Study to Predict Optimized Treatment in Depression, a randomized, prospective open-label trial to identify clinically useful predictors and moderators of response to commonly used first-line antidepressant medications. Data collection was conducted at 20 sites spanning 5 countries and including 518 adult outpatients (18-65 years of age) from primary care or specialty care practices who received a diagnosis of current major depressive disorder between December 1, 2008, and September 30, 2013. Patients were antidepressant medication naive or willing to undergo a 1-week washout period of any nonprotocol antidepressant medication. Statistical analysis was conducted from January 5 to June 30, 2019.