Hope Is Not a Plan: The Myth of American Manufacturing

In building a case for an American manufacturing renaissance, economists cite increasing productivity, cheap natural gas, and rising value-added figures to show that manufacturing is in good shape and will get better. Some of these positivists also claim that rising labor costs in Asia and the creation of U.S. manufacturing jobs since 2010 are evidence of a big turnaround in manufacturing. There are also some mysterious predictions, shared without data to back them up, that manufacturing exports will grow and imports will shrink. Manufacturing has been battered so badly by China and other Asian countries and by American multinational corporation offshoring that people are desperate for positive news. But the question is, are these stories based on truth or are they just "happy talk"? For example, the McKinsey Global Institute says growth in manufacturing is right around the corner.