Modeling Solar PV Adoption: A Social-Behavioral Agent-Based Framework

Behavioral scientists contend that individuals, and organizations rarely make decisions solely on the basis of economic factors. Decisions are also shaped by perceived risk, social interactions, currency and salience of information, and other value propositions. Social diffusion of information on consumer experiences, entrance of new business models better aligned with customers’ concerns when evaluating investments, and perceived improving economic conditions are all factors in consumers’ decisions to adopt a new technology, such as solar photovoltaics (PV). We describe a new conceptual agent-based model, BE-Solar, that incorporates a social and behavioral decision framework for technology adoption decisions. We demonstrate the feasibility of including heterogeneity and behavioral factors into an agent-based model of the solar PV market, which is being applied to the Southern California market.