EnsemblinggeophysicalmodelswithBayesianNeural Networks

Ensembles of geophysical models improve prediction accuracy and express uncertainties. We develop a novel data-driven ensembling strategy for combining geophysical models using Bayesian Neural Networks, which infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and bias, while accounting for heteroscedastic uncertainties in the observations. This produces more accurate and uncertaintyaware predictions without sacrificing interpretability.