Misclassification cost-sensitive ensemble learning: A unifying framework

The task of supervised machine learning is given a set of recorded observations and their outcomes to predict the outcome of new observations. Standard classification techniques aim for the highest overall accuracy or, equivalently, for the smallest total error, and include among others support vector machines, Bayesian classifiers, logistic regression, decision tree classifiers such as CART [6] and C4.5 [38], and ensemble methods which build several classifiers and aggregate their predictions such as Bagging [4], AdaBoost [16] and Random Forests [5]. Of particular interest in certain domains are binary classifiers which deal with cases where only two classes of outcomes are considered, such as fraudulent and legitimate credit card transactions, responders and non-responders to a marketing campaign, patients with and without cancer, intrusive and authorised network access, and defaulting and repaying debtors to name a few. In most of these cases, one of the classes is a small minority and consequently traditional classifiers might classify all of its members as belonging to the majority class without any significant overall accuracy loss. The severity of this class imbalance becomes more noticeable when failing to correctly predict a minority class member is more costly than doing so with a member of the majority class, as the case often is. A remedy to the undesirable situation just described are classifiers which, instead of accuracy, take misclassification costs into account and are thus termed cost-sensitive. We illustrate this idea in the credit card fraud detection framework: accepting a fraudulent transaction as legitimate incurs a cost equal to its amount.