Conditional Prediction by Simulation for Automated Driving

Predicting the future trajectories of surrounding traffic participants plays an essential role in automated driving. By anticipating future movements of nearby agents, such as vehicles and vulnerable road users, an automated vehicle (AV) can better plan maneuvers, reduce the risk of collisions, and ensure smoother interactions with other road users. Although existing approaches, e.g., [1-3], effectively predict the future movements of individual traffic participants, they limit an AV to a reactive planning strategy, assuming that the predictions of surrounding vehicles remain unaffected by the AV's planned actions. In highly interactive situations, this often leads to the freezing robot problem [4], where the AV, unable to engage in cooperative planning, simply stops to avoid potential collisions. For example, when it is unable to merge in dense traffic because the predictions of surrounding vehicles do not react to the AV's plan. One approach to resolving this is to condition the prediction on the AV's plan, often referred to as conditional inference [5].