RiskNet: Interaction-Aware Risk Forecasting for Autonomous Driving in Long-Tail Scenarios

Ensuring the safety of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in long - tail scenarios remains a critical challenge, particularly under high uncertainty and complex multi - agent interactions. To address this, we propose RiskNet, an interaction - aware risk forecasting frame work, which integrates deterministic risk modeling with probabilistic behavior prediction for comprehensive risk assessment . At its core, RiskNet employs a field - theoretic model that captures interactions among ego vehicle, surrounding agents, and infrastr ucture via interaction fields and force. This model supports multidimensional risk evaluation across diverse scenarios (highways, intersections, and roundabouts), and shows robustness under high - risk and long - tail settings . To capture the behavioral uncert ainty, we incorporate a graph neural network (GNN) - based trajectory prediction module, which learns multi - modal future motion distributions. Coupled with the deterministic risk field, it enables dynamic, probabilistic risk inference across time, enabling p roactive safety assessment under uncertainty. Evaluations on the highD, inD, and rounD datasets, spanning lane changes, turns, and complex merges, demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms traditional approaches (e.g., TTC, THW, RSS, NC Field) in terms of accuracy, responsiveness, and directional sensitivity, while maintaining strong generalization across scenarios . This framework supports real - time, scenario - adaptive risk forecasting and demonstrates strong generalization across uncertain drivi ng environments. It offers a unified foundation for safety - critical decisio n - making in long - tail scenarios .