TraffNet: Learning Causality of Traffic Generation for What-if Prediction

Real-time what-if traffic prediction is crucial for decision making in intelligent traffic management and control. Although current deep learning methods demonstrate significant advantages in traffic prediction, they are powerless in what-if traffic prediction due to their nature of correlation-based. Here, we present a simple deep learning framework called TraffNet that learns the mechanisms of traffic generation for what-if prediction from vehicle trajectory data. First, we use a heterogeneous graph to represent the road network, allowing the model to incorporate causal features of traffic flows, such as Origin-Destination (OD) demands and routes. Next, we propose a method for learning segment representations, which involves modeling the process of assigning OD demands onto the road network. The learned segment representations effectively encapsulate the intricate causes of traffic generation, facilitating downstream what-if traffic prediction. Finally, we conduct experiments on synthetic datasets to evaluate the effectiveness of TraffNet. The code and datasets of TraffNet is available at https://github.com/mayunyi-1999/TraffNet_code.git.