A Multi-level Analysis of Factors Associated with Student Performance: A Machine Learning Approach to the SAEB Microdata

Identifying the determinants of academic success in basic education represents a central challenge for educational research and policymaking, particularly in a country with Brazil's vast dimensions and socioeconomic heterogeneity (Issah et al. 2023). A systemic approach is crucial, as student performance is influenced by a complex interplay of factors spanning individual, academic, socioeconomic, and institutional domains (Barrag an Moreno and Guzm an Rinc on 2025). The System of Assessment of Basic Education (SAEB), conducted by the National Institute for Educational Studies and Research An ısio Teixeira (INEP) (INEP 2025), provides a rich, multi-level dataset uniquely suited for such an analysis (Bonamino et al. 2010). The public availability of its anonymized microdata enables the research community to investigate the intricate relationships between student proficiency and a wide array of contextual factors, from socioeconomic backgrounds to school infrastructure and teacher profiles. Consequently, the SAEB microdata is an essential resource for data-driven research aimed at informing and evaluating educational policies in the country (Lundberg and Lee 2017b; Mazoni and Oliveira 2023). While traditional statistical methods are common, the Educational Data Mining (EDM) paradigm offers powerful tools for uncovering complex, non-linear patterns from such data (Romero and Ventura 2010). Furthermore, we demonstrate that by interpreting the model's classification results with XAI techniques, our method provides data-driven insights for educators and policymakers (Idrizi 2024). The primary objective of this research is thus to develop and evaluate a multi-level machine learning model to identify the key systemic factors associated with the academic performance of 9th-grade and high school students, using the SAEB microdata. Building upon this perspective, the study shifts its analytical focus from purely individual student interventions toward addressing the systemic determinants that shape educational outcomes in Brazilian basic education.