Statistical Learning
RFX-Fuse: Breiman and Cutler's Unified ML Engine + Native Explainable Similarity
Breiman and Cutler's original Random Forest was designed as a unified ML engine -- not merely an ensemble predictor. Their implementation included classification, regression, unsupervised learning, proximity-based similarity, outlier detection, missing value imputation, and visualization -- capabilities that modern libraries like scikit-learn never implemented. RFX-Fuse (Random Forests X [X=compression] -- Forest Unified Learning and Similarity Engine) delivers Breiman and Cutler's complete vision with native GPU/CPU support. Modern ML pipelines require 5+ separate tools -- XGBoost for prediction, FAISS for similarity, SHAP for explanations, Isolation Forest for outliers, custom code for importance. RFX-Fuse provides a 1 to 2 model object alternative -- a single set of trees grown once. Novel Contributions: (1) Proximity Importance -- native explainable similarity: proximity measures that samples are similar; proximity importance explains why. (2) Dataset-specific imputation validation for general tabular data -- ranking imputation methods by how real the imputed data looks, without ground truth labels.
Persistence Spheres: a Bi-continuous Linear Representation of Measures for Partial Optimal Transport
We improve and extend persistence spheres, introduced in~\cite{pegoraro2025persistence}. Persistence spheres map an integrable measure $ฮผ$ on the upper half-plane, including persistence diagrams (PDs) as counting measures, to a function $S(ฮผ)\in C(\mathbb{S}^2)$, and the map is stable with respect to 1-Wasserstein partial transport distance $\mathrm{POT}_1$. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, persistence spheres are the first explicit representation used in topological machine learning for which continuity of the inverse on the image is established at every compactly supported target. Recent bounded-cardinality bi-Lipschitz embedding results in partial transport spaces, despite being powerful, are not given by the kind of explicit summary map considered here. Our construction is rooted in convex geometry: for positive measures, the defining ReLU integral is the support function of the lift zonoid. Building on~\cite{pegoraro2025persistence}, we refine the definition to better match the $\mathrm{POT}_1$ deletion mechanism, encoding partial transport via a signed diagonal augmentation. In particular, for integrable $ฮผ$, the uniform norm between $S(0)$ and $S(ฮผ)$ depends only on the persistence of $ฮผ$, without any need of ad-hoc re-weightings, reflecting optimal transport to the diagonal at persistence cost. This yields a parameter-free representation at the level of measures (up to numerical discretization), while accommodating future extensions where $ฮผ$ is a smoothed measure derived from PDs (e.g., persistence intensity functions~\citep{wu2024estimation}). Across clustering, regression, and classification tasks involving functional data, time series, graphs, meshes, and point clouds, the updated persistence spheres are competitive and often improve upon persistence images, persistence landscapes, persistence splines, and sliced Wasserstein kernel baselines.
Estimating Staged Event Tree Models via Hierarchical Clustering on the Simplex
Shoaib, Muhammad, Riccomagno, Eva, Leonelli, Manuele, Varando, Gherardo
Staged tree models enhance Bayesian networks by incorporating context-specific dependencies through a stage-based structure. In this study, we present a new framework for estimating staged trees using hierarchical clustering on the probability simplex, utilizing simplex basesd divergences. We conduct a thorough evaluation of several distance and divergence metrics including Total Variation, Hellinger, Fisher, and Kaniadakis; alongside various linkage methods such as Ward.D2, average, complete, and McQuitty. We conducted the simulation experiments that reveals Total Variation, especially when combined with Ward.D2 linkage, consistently produces staged trees with better model fit, structure recovery, and computational efficiency. We assess performance by utilizing relative Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Hamming distance. Our findings indicate that although Backward Hill Climbing (BHC) delivers competitive outcomes, it incurs a significantly higher computational cost. On the other, Total Variation divergence with Ward.D2 linkage, achieves similar performance while providing significantly better computational efficiency, making it a more viable option for large-scale or time sensitive tasks.
Low-Complexity and Consistent Graphon Estimation from Multiple Networks
Sogan, Roland Boniface, Rebafka, Tabea
Recovering the random graph model from an observed collection of networks is known to present significant challenges in the setting, where the networks do not share a common node set and have different sizes. More specifically, the goal is the estimation of the graphon function that parametrizes the nonparametric exchangeable random graph model. Existing methods typically suffer from either limited accuracy or high computational complexity. We introduce a new histogram-based estimator with low algorithmic complexity that achieves high accuracy by jointly aligning the nodes of all graphs, in contrast to most conventional methods that order nodes graph by graph. Consistency results of the proposed graphon estimator are established. A numerical study shows that the proposed estimator outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy, especially when the dataset comprises only small and variable-size networks. Moreover, the computing time of the new method is considerably shorter than that of other consistent methodologies. Additionally, when applied to a graph neural network classification task, the proposed estimator enables more effective data augmentation, yielding improved performance across diverse real-world datasets.
Bayesian Inference for Missing Physics
Model-based approaches for (bio)process systems often suffer from incomplete knowledge of the underlying physical, chemical, or biological laws. Universal differential equations, which embed neural networks within differential equations, have emerged as powerful tools to learn this missing physics from experimental data. However, neural networks are inherently opaque, motivating their post-processing via symbolic regression to obtain interpretable mathematical expressions. Genetic algorithm-based symbolic regression is a popular approach for this post-processing step, but provides only point estimates and cannot quantify the confidence we should place in a discovered equation. We address this limitation by applying Bayesian symbolic regression, which uses Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution over symbolic expression trees. This approach naturally quantifies uncertainty in the recovered model structure. We demonstrate the methodology on a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system and then show how a well-designed experiment leads to lower uncertainty in a fed-batch bioreactor case study.
Fast Uncertainty Quantification for Kernel-Based Estimators in Large-Scale Causal Inference
Kosko, Matthew, J, Falco, Bargagli-Stoffi, null, Wang, Lin, Santacatterina, Michele
Kernel methods are widely used in causal inference for tasks such as treatment effect estimation, policy evaluation, and policy learning. The bootstrap is a standard tool for uncertainty quantification because of its broad applicability. As increasingly large datasets become available, such as the 2023 U.S. Natality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), which includes 3,596,017 registered births, the computational demands of these methods increase substantially. Kernel methods are known to scale poorly with sample size, and this limitation is further exacerbated by the repeated re-fitting required by the bootstrap. As a result, bootstrap-based inference for kernel-based estimators can become computationally infeasible in large-scale settings. In this paper, we address these challenges by extending the causal Bag of Little Bootstraps (cBLB) algorithm to kernel methods. Our approach achieves computational scalability by combining subsampling and resampling while preserving first-order uncertainty quantification and asymptotically correct coverage. We evaluate the method across three representative implementations: kernelized augmented outcome-weighted learning, kernel-based minimax weighting, and double machine learning with kernel support vector machines. We show in simulations that our method yields confidence intervals with nominal coverage at a fraction of the computational cost. We further demonstrate its utility in a real-world application by estimating the effect of any amount of smoking on birth weight, as well as the optimal treatment regime, using the NVSS dataset, where the standard bootstrap is prohibitively expensive computationally and effectively infeasible at this scale.
Scalable Simulation-Based Model Inference with Test-Time Complexity Control
Gloeckler, Manuel, Manzano-Patrรณn, J. P., Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N., Schrรถder, Cornelius, Macke, Jakob H.
Simulation plays a central role in scientific discovery. In many applications, the bottleneck is no longer running a simulator; it is choosing among large families of plausible simulators, each corresponding to different forward models/hypotheses consistent with observations. Over large model families, classical Bayesian workflows for model selection are impractical. Furthermore, amortized model selection methods typically hard-code a fixed model prior or complexity penalty at training time, requiring users to commit to a particular parsimony assumption before seeing the data. We introduce PRISM, a simulation-based encoder-decoder that infers a joint posterior over both discrete model structures and associated continuous parameters, while enabling test-time control of model complexity via a tunable model prior that the network is conditioned on. We show that PRISM scales to families with combinatorially many (up to billions) of model instantiations on a synthetic symbolic regression task. As a scientific application, we evaluate PRISM on biophysical modeling for diffusion MRI data, showing the ability to perform model selection across several multi-compartment models, on both synthetic and in vivo neuroimaging data.
EmDT: Embedding Diffusion Transformer for Tabular Data Generation in Fraud Detection
Imbalanced datasets pose a difficulty in fraud detection, as classifiers are often biased toward the majority class and perform poorly on rare fraudulent transactions. Synthetic data generation is therefore commonly used to mitigate this problem. In this work, we propose the Clustered Embedding Diffusion-Transformer (EmDT), a diffusion model designed to generate fraudulent samples. Our key innovation is to leverage UMAP clustering to identify distinct fraudulent patterns, and train a Transformer denoising network with sinusoidal positional embeddings to capture feature relationships throughout the diffusion process. Once the synthetic data has been generated, we employ a standard decision-tree-based classifier (e.g., XGBoost) for classification, as this type of model remains better suited to tabular datasets. Experiments on a credit card fraud detection dataset demonstrate that EmDT significantly improves downstream classification performance compared to existing oversampling and generative methods, while maintaining comparable privacy protection and preserving feature correlations present in the original data.
High-Probability Bounds for SGD under the Polyak-Lojasiewicz Condition with Markovian Noise
Kar, Avik, Chandak, Siddharth, Singh, Rahul, Moulines, Eric, Bhatnagar, Shalabh, Bambos, Nicholas
We present the first uniform-in-time high-probability bound for SGD under the PL condition, where the gradient noise contains both Markovian and martingale difference components. This significantly broadens the scope of finite-time guarantees, as the PL condition arises in many machine learning and deep learning models while Markovian noise naturally arises in decentralized optimization and online system identification problems. We further allow the magnitude of noise to grow with the function value, enabling the analysis of many practical sampling strategies. In addition to the high-probability guarantee, we establish a matching $1/k$ decay rate for the expected suboptimality. Our proof technique relies on the Poisson equation to handle the Markovian noise and a probabilistic induction argument to address the lack of almost-sure bounds on the objective. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our framework by analyzing three practical optimization problems: token-based decentralized linear regression, supervised learning with subsampling for privacy amplification, and online system identification.
When Should Humans Step In? Optimal Human Dispatching in AI-Assisted Decisions
Tan, Lezhi, Sagan, Naomi, Lei, Lihua, Blanchet, Jose
AI systems increasingly assist human decision making by producing preliminary assessments of complex inputs. However, such AI-generated assessments can often be noisy or systematically biased, raising a central question: how should costly human effort be allocated to correct AI outputs where it matters the most for the final decision? We propose a general decision-theoretic framework for human-AI collaboration in which AI assessments are treated as factor-level signals and human judgments as costly information that can be selectively acquired. We consider cases where the optimal selection problem reduces to maximizing a reward associated with each candidate subset of factors, and turn policy design into reward estimation. We develop estimation procedures under both nonparametric and linear models, covering contextual and non-contextual selection rules. In the linear setting, the optimal rule admits a closed-form expression with a clear interpretation in terms of factor importance and residual variance. We apply our framework to AI-assisted peer review. Our approach substantially outperforms LLM-only predictions and achieves performance comparable to full human review while using only 20-30% of the human information. Across different selection rules, we find that simpler rules derived under linear models can significantly reduce computational cost without harming final prediction performance. Our results highlight both the value of human intervention and the efficiency of principled dispatching.