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Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis for Engineering Design Based on Individual Conditional Expectations

Palar, Pramudita Satria, Saves, Paul, Regis, Rommel G., Shimoyama, Koji, Obayashi, Shigeru, Verstaevel, Nicolas, Morlier, Joseph

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Explainable machine learning techniques have gained increasing attention in engineering applications, especially in aerospace design and analysis, where understanding how input variables influence data-driven models is essential. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) are widely used for interpreting black-box models by showing the average effect of an input variable on the prediction. However, their global sensitivity metric can be misleading when strong interactions are present, as averaging tends to obscure interaction effects. To address this limitation, we propose a global sensitivity metric based on Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) curves. The method computes the expected feature importance across ICE curves, along with their standard deviation, to more effectively capture the influence of interactions. We provide a mathematical proof demonstrating that the PDP-based sensitivity is a lower bound of the proposed ICE-based metric under truncated orthogonal polynomial expansion. In addition, we introduce an ICE-based correlation value to quantify how interactions modify the relationship between inputs and the output. Comparative evaluations were performed on three cases: a 5-variable analytical function, a 5-variable wind-turbine fatigue problem, and a 9-variable airfoil aerodynamics case, where ICE-based sensitivity was benchmarked against PDP, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and Sobol' indices. The results show that ICE-based feature importance provides richer insights than the traditional PDP-based approach, while visual interpretations from PDP, ICE, and SHAP complement one another by offering multiple perspectives.


RaX-Crash: A Resource Efficient and Explainable Small Model Pipeline with an Application to City Scale Injury Severity Prediction

Zhu, Di, Xie, Chen, Wang, Ziwei, Zhang, Haoyun

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

New York City reports over one hundred thousand motor vehicle collisions each year, creating substantial injury and public health burden. We present RaX-Crash, a resource efficient and explainable small model pipeline for structured injury severity prediction on the official NYC Motor Vehicle Collisions dataset. RaX-Crash integrates three linked tables with tens of millions of records, builds a unified feature schema in partitioned storage, and trains compact tree based ensembles (Random Forest and XGBoost) on engineered tabular features, which are compared against locally deployed small language models (SLMs) prompted with textual summaries. On a temporally held out test set, XGBoost and Random Forest achieve accuracies of 0.7828 and 0.7794, clearly outperforming SLMs (0.594 and 0.496); class imbalance analysis shows that simple class weighting improves fatal recall with modest accuracy trade offs, and SHAP attribution highlights human vulnerability factors, timing, and location as dominant drivers of predicted severity. Overall, RaX-Crash indicates that interpretable small model ensembles remain strong baselines for city scale injury analytics, while hybrid pipelines that pair tabular predictors with SLM generated narratives improve communication without sacrificing scalability.


XAI-on-RAN: Explainable, AI-native, and GPU-Accelerated RAN Towards 6G

Basaran, Osman Tugay, Dressler, Falko

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI)-native radio access networks (RANs) will serve vertical industries with stringent requirements: smart grids, autonomous vehicles, remote healthcare, industrial automation, etc. To achieve these requirements, modern 5G/6G design increasingly leverage AI for network optimization, but the opacity of AI decisions poses risks in mission-critical domains. These use cases are often delivered via non-public networks (NPNs) or dedicated network slices, where reliability and safety are vital. In this paper, we motivate the need for transparent and trustworthy AI in high-stakes communications (e.g., healthcare, industrial automation, and robotics) by drawing on 3rd generation partnership project (3GPP)'s vision for non-public networks. We design a mathematical framework to model the trade-offs between transparency (explanation fidelity and fairness), latency, and graphics processing unit (GPU) utilization in deploying explainable AI (XAI) models. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our proposed hybrid XAI model xAI-Native, consistently surpasses conventional baseline models in performance.



From Decision Trees to Boolean Logic: A Fast and Unified SHAP Algorithm

Nadel, Alexander, Wettenstein, Ron

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) is a key tool for interpreting decision tree ensembles by assigning contribution values to features. It is widely used in finance, advertising, medicine, and other domains. Two main approaches to SHAP calculation exist: Path-Dependent SHAP, which leverages the tree structure for efficiency, and Background SHAP, which uses a background dataset to estimate feature distributions. We introduce WOODELF, a SHAP algorithm that integrates decision trees, game theory, and Boolean logic into a unified framework. For each consumer, WOODELF constructs a pseudo-Boolean formula that captures their feature values, the structure of the decision tree ensemble, and the entire background dataset. It then leverages this representation to compute Background SHAP in linear time. WOODELF can also compute Path-Dependent SHAP, Shapley interaction values, Banzhaf values, and Banzhaf interaction values. WOODELF is designed to run efficiently on CPU and GPU hardware alike. Available via the WOODELF Python package, it is implemented using NumPy, SciPy, and CuPy without relying on custom C++ or CUDA code. This design enables fast performance and seamless integration into existing frameworks, supporting large-scale computation of SHAP and other game-theoretic values in practice. For example, on a dataset with 3,000,000 rows, 5,000,000 background samples, and 127 features, WOODELF computed all Background Shapley values in 162 seconds on CPU and 16 seconds on GPU - compared to 44 minutes required by the best method on any hardware platform, representing 16x and 165x speedups, respectively.


Explanations Go Linear: Interpretable and Individual Latent Encoding for Post-hoc Explainability

Piaggesi, Simone, Guidotti, Riccardo, Giannotti, Fosca, Pedreschi, Dino

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Post-hoc explainability is essential for understanding black-box machine learning models. Surrogate-based techniques are widely used for local and global model-agnostic explanations but have significant limitations. Local surrogates capture non-linearities but are computationally expensive and sensitive to parameters, while global surrogates are more efficient but struggle with complex local behaviors. In this paper, we present ILLUME, a flexible and interpretable framework grounded in representation learning, that can be integrated with various surrogate models to provide explanations for any black-box classifier. Specifically, our approach combines a globally trained surrogate with instance-specific linear transformations learned with a meta-encoder to generate both local and global explanations. Through extensive empirical evaluations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of ILLUME in producing feature attributions and decision rules that are not only accurate but also robust and faithful to the black-box, thus providing a unified explanation framework that effectively addresses the limitations of traditional surrogate methods.


Automated and Explainable Denial of Service Analysis for AI-Driven Intrusion Detection Systems

Yakubu, Paul Badu, Santana, Lesther, Rahouti, Mohamed, Xin, Yufeng, Chehri, Abdellah, Aledhari, Mohammed

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the increasing frequency and sophistication of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, it has become critical to develop more efficient and interpretable detection methods. Traditional detection systems often struggle with scalability and transparency, hindering real-time response and understanding of attack vectors. This paper presents an automated framework for detecting and interpreting DDoS attacks using machine learning (ML). The proposed method leverages the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT) to automate the selection and optimization of ML models and features, reducing the need for manual experimentation. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) is incorporated to enhance model interpretability, providing detailed insights into the contribution of individual features to the detection process. By combining TPOT's automated pipeline selection with SHAP interpretability, this approach improves the accuracy and transparency of DDoS detection. Experimental results demonstrate that key features such as mean backward packet length and minimum forward packet header length are critical in detecting DDoS attacks, offering a scalable and explainable cybersecurity solution.


Towards Piece-by-Piece Explanations for Chess Positions with SHAP

Spinnato, Francesco

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contemporary chess engines offer precise yet opaque evaluations, typically expressed as centipawn scores. While effective for decision-making, these outputs obscure the underlying contributions of individual pieces or patterns. In this paper, we explore adapting SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to the domain of chess analysis, aiming to attribute a chess engines evaluation to specific pieces on the board. By treating pieces as features and systematically ablating them, we compute additive, per-piece contributions that explain the engines output in a locally faithful and human-interpretable manner. This method draws inspiration from classical chess pedagogy, where players assess positions by mentally removing pieces, and grounds it in modern explainable AI techniques. Our approach opens new possibilities for visualization, human training, and engine comparison. We release accompanying code and data to foster future research in interpretable chess AI.


Interpreting LLMs as Credit Risk Classifiers: Do Their Feature Explanations Align with Classical ML?

AlMarri, Saeed, Juhasz, Kristof, Ravaut, Mathieu, Marti, Gautier, Ahbabi, Hamdan Al, Elfadel, Ibrahim

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as flexible alternatives to classical machine learning models for classification tasks through zero-shot prompting. However, their suitability for structured tabular data remains underexplored, especially in high-stakes financial applications such as financial risk assessment. This study conducts a systematic comparison between zero-shot LLM-based classifiers and LightGBM, a state-of-the-art gradient-boosting model, on a real-world loan default prediction task. We evaluate their predictive performance, analyze feature attributions using SHAP, and assess the reliability of LLM-generated self-explanations. While LLMs are able to identify key financial risk indicators, their feature importance rankings diverge notably from LightGBM, and their self-explanations often fail to align with empirical SHAP attributions. These findings highlight the limitations of LLMs as standalone models for structured financial risk prediction and raise concerns about the trustworthiness of their self-generated explanations. Our results underscore the need for explainability audits, baseline comparisons with interpretable models, and human-in-the-loop oversight when deploying LLMs in risk-sensitive financial environments.