redshift
New Expansion Rate Anomalies at Characteristic Redshifts Geometrically Determined using DESI-DR2 BAO and DES-SN5YR Observations
Mukherjee, Purba, Sen, Anjan A
We perform a model-independent reconstruction of the cosmic distances using the Multi-Task Gaussian Process (MTGP) framework as well as knot-based spline techniques with DESI-DR2 BAO and DES-SN5YR datasets. We calibrate the comoving sound horizon at the baryon drag epoch $r_d$ to the Planck value, ensuring consistency with early-universe physics. With the reconstructed cosmic distances and their derivatives, we obtain seven characteristic redshifts in the range $0.3 \leq z \leq 1.7$. We derive the normalized expansion rate of the Universe $E(z)$ at these redshifts. Our findings reveal significant deviations of approximately $4$ to $5σ$ from the Planck 2018 $Λ$CDM predictions, particularly pronounced in the redshift range $z \sim 0.35-0.55$. These anomalies are consistently observed across both reconstruction methods and combined datasets, indicating robust late-time tensions in the expansion rate of the Universe and which are distinct from the existing "Hubble Tension". This could signal new physics beyond the standard cosmological framework at this redshift range. Our findings underscore the role of characteristic redshifts as sensitive indicators of expansion rate anomalies and motivate further scrutiny with forthcoming datasets from DESI-5YR BAO, Euclid, and LSST. These future surveys will tighten constraints and will confirm whether these late-time anomalies arise from new fundamental physics or unresolved systematics in the data.
Machine Learning-Driven Analysis of kSZ Maps to Predict CMB Optical Depth $τ$
Khouzani, Farshid Farhadi, Shaw, Abinash Kumar, La Plante, Paul, Shareef, Bryar Mustafa, Gewali, Laxmi
Upcoming measurements of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect, which results from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons scattering off moving electrons, offer a powerful probe of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). The kSZ signal contains key information about the timing, duration, and spatial structure of the EoR. A precise measurement of the CMB optical depth $τ$, a key parameter that characterizes the universe's integrated electron density, would significantly constrain models of early structure formation. However, the weak kSZ signal is difficult to extract from CMB observations due to significant contamination from astrophysical foregrounds. We present a machine learning approach to extract $τ$ from simulated kSZ maps. We train advanced machine learning models, including swin transformers, on high-resolution seminumeric simulations of the kSZ signal. To robustly quantify prediction uncertainties of $τ$, we employ the Laplace Approximation (LA). This approach provides an efficient and principled Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution over the model's weights, allowing for reliable error estimation. We investigate and compare two distinct application modes: a post-hoc LA applied to a pre-trained model, and an online LA where model weights and hyperparameters are optimized jointly by maximizing the marginal likelihood. This approach provides a framework for robustly constraining $τ$ and its associated uncertainty, which can enhance the analysis of upcoming CMB surveys like the Simons Observatory and CMB-S4.
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Multi-Modal Masked Autoencoders for Learning Image-Spectrum Associations for Galaxy Evolution and Cosmology
Himes, Morgan, Krishnamurthy, Samiksha, Lizarraga, Andrew, Saikrishnan, Srinath, Seenivasan, Vikram, Soriano, Jonathan, Wu, Ying Nian, Do, Tuan
Upcoming surveys will produce billions of galaxy images but comparatively few spectra, motivating models that learn cross-modal representations. We build a dataset of 134,533 galaxy images (HSC-PDR2) and spectra (DESI-DR1) and adapt a Multi-Modal Masked Autoencoder (MMAE) to embed both images and spectra in a shared representation. The MMAE is a transformer-based architecture, which we train by masking 75% of the data and reconstructing missing image and spectral tokens. We use this model to test three applications: spectral and image reconstruction from heavily masked data and redshift regression from images alone. It recovers key physical features, such as galaxy shapes, atomic emission line peaks, and broad continuum slopes, though it struggles with fine image details and line strengths. For redshift regression, the MMAE performs comparably or better than prior multi-modal models in terms of prediction scatter even when missing spectra in testing. These results highlight both the potential and limitations of masked autoencoders in astrophysics and motivate extensions to additional modalities, such as text, for foundation models.
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A Gaussian Process Model of Quasar Spectral Energy Distributions Andrew Miller
We propose a method for combining two sources of astronomical data, spectroscopy and photometry, that carry information about sources of light (e.g., stars, galaxies, and quasars) at extremely different spectral resolutions. Our model treats the spectral energy distribution (SED) of the radiation from a source as a latent variable that jointly explains both photometric and spectroscopic observations. We place a flexible, nonparametric prior over the SED of a light source that admits a physically interpretable decomposition, and allows us to tractably perform inference. We use our model to predict the distribution of the redshift of a quasar from five-band (low spectral resolution) photometric data, the so called "photo-z" problem. Our method shows that tools from machine learning and Bayesian statistics allow us to leverage multiple resolutions of information to make accurate predictions with well-characterized uncertainties.
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CIGaRS I: Combined simulation-based inference from SNae Ia and host photometry
Karchev, Konstantin, Trotta, Roberto, Jimenez, Raul
Using type Ia supernovae (SNae Ia) as cosmological probes requires empirical corrections, which correlate with their host environment. We present a unified Bayesian hierarchical model designed to infer, from purely photometric observations, the intrinsic dependence of SN Ia brightness on progenitor properties (metallicity & age), the delay-time distribution (DTD) that governs their rate as a function of age, and cosmology, as well as the redshifts of all hosts. The model incorporates physics-based prescriptions for star formation and chemical evolution from Prospector-beta, dust extinction of both galaxy and SN light, and observational selection effects. We show with simulations that intrinsic dependences on metallicity and age have distinct observational signatures, with metallicity mimicking the well-known step of SN Ia magnitudes across a host stellar mass of $\approx 10^{10} M_{\odot}$. We then demonstrate neural simulation-based inference of all model parameters from mock observations of ~16 000 SNae Ia and their hosts up to redshift 0.9. Our joint physics-based approach delivers robust and precise photometric redshifts (<0.01 median scatter) and improved cosmological constraints, unlocking the full power of photometric data and paving the way for an end-to-end simulation-based analysis pipeline in the LSST era.
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Identifying Doppelganger Active Galactic Nuclei across redshifts from spectroscopic surveys
Sareen, Shreya, Panda, Swayamtrupta
Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) are among the most luminous objects in the universe, making them valuable probes for studying galaxy evolution. However, understanding how AGN properties evolve over cosmic time remains a fundamental challenge. This study investigates whether AGNs at low redshift (nearby) can serve as proxies for their high-redshift (distant) counterparts by identifying spectral 'doppelgängers', AGNs with remarkably similar emission line properties despite being separated by vast cosmic distances. We analyze key spectral features of bona fide AGNs using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's Data Release 16, including continuum and emission lines: Nitrogen (N V), Carbon (C IV), Magnesium (Mg II), Hydrogen-beta (H$β$), and Iron (Fe II - optical and UV) emission lines. We incorporated properties such as equivalent width, velocity dispersion in the form of full width at half maximum (FWHM), and continuum luminosities (135nm, 300nm, and 510nm) closest to these prominent lines. Our initial findings suggest the existence of multiple AGNs with highly similar spectra, hinting at the possibility that local AGNs may indeed share intrinsic properties with high-redshift ones. We showcase here one of the better candidate pairs of AGNs resulting from our analyses.
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Inferring the Hubble Constant Using Simulated Strongly Lensed Supernovae and Neural Network Ensembles
Gonçalves, Gonçalo, Arendse, Nikki, Ramanah, Doogesh Kodi, Wojtak, Radosław
Strongly lensed supernovae are a promising new probe to obtain independent measurements of the Hubble constant (${H_0}$). In this work, we employ simulated gravitationally lensed Type Ia supernovae (glSNe Ia) to train our machine learning (ML) pipeline to constrain $H_0$. We simulate image time-series of glSNIa, as observed with the upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, that we employ for training an ensemble of five convolutional neural networks (CNNs). The outputs of this ensemble network are combined with a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework to quantify the uncertainties on the network predictions and infer full posteriors for the $H_0$ estimates. We illustrate that the combination of multiple glSN systems enhances constraint precision, providing a $4.4\%$ estimate of $H_0$ based on 100 simulated systems, which is in agreement with the ground truth. This research highlights the potential of leveraging the capabilities of ML with glSNe systems to obtain a pipeline capable of fast and automated $H_0$ measurements.
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Beyond Moore's Law: Harnessing the Redshift of Generative AI with Effective Hardware-Software Co-Design
For decades, Moore's Law has served as a steadfast pillar in computer architecture and system design, promoting a clear abstraction between hardware and software. This traditional Moore's computing paradigm has deepened the rift between the two, enabling software developers to achieve near-exponential performance gains often without needing to delve deeply into hardware-specific optimizations. Yet today, Moore's Law -- with its once relentless performance gains now diminished to incremental improvements -- faces inevitable physical barriers. This stagnation necessitates a reevaluation of the conventional system design philosophy. The traditional decoupled system design philosophy, which maintains strict abstractions between hardware and software, is increasingly obsolete. The once-clear boundary between software and hardware is rapidly dissolving, replaced by co-design. It is imperative for the computing community to intensify its commitment to hardware-software co-design, elevating system abstractions to first-class citizens and reimagining design principles to satisfy the insatiable appetite of modern computing. Hardware-software co-design is not a recent innovation. To illustrate its historical evolution, I classify its development into five relatively distinct ``epochs''. This post also highlights the growing influence of the architecture community in interdisciplinary teams -- particularly alongside ML researchers -- and explores why current co-design paradigms are struggling in today's computing landscape. Additionally, I will examine the concept of the ``hardware lottery'' and explore directions to mitigate its constraining influence on the next era of computing innovation.
A New $\sim 5\sigma$ Tension at Characteristic Redshift from DESI-DR1 BAO and DES-SN5YR Observations
Mukherjee, Purba, Sen, Anjan A
We perform a model-independent reconstruction of the angular diameter distance ($D_{A}$) using the Multi-Task Gaussian Process (MTGP) framework with DESI-DR1 BAO and DES-SN5YR datasets. We calibrate the comoving sound horizon at the baryon drag epoch $r_d$ to the Planck best-fit value, ensuring consistency with early-universe physics. With the reconstructed $D_A$ at two key redshifts, $z\sim 1.63$ (where $D_{A}^{\prime} =0$) and at $z\sim 0.512$ (where $D_{A}^{\prime} = D_{A}$), we derive the expansion rate of the Universe $H(z)$ at these redshifts. Our findings reveal that at $z\sim 1.63$, the $H(z)$ is fully consistent with the Planck-2018 $\Lambda$CDM prediction, confirming no new physics at that redshift. However, at $z \sim 0.512$, the derived $H(z)$ shows a more than $5\sigma$ discrepancy with the Planck-2018 $\Lambda$CDM prediction, suggesting a possible breakdown of the $\Lambda$CDM model as constrained by Planck-2018 at this lower redshift. This emerging $\sim 5\sigma$ tension at $z\sim 0.512$, distinct from the existing ``Hubble Tension'', may signal the first strong evidence for new physics at low redshifts.
Improving DBMS Scheduling Decisions with Fine-grained Performance Prediction on Concurrent Queries -- Extended
Wu, Ziniu, Markakis, Markos, Liu, Chunwei, Chen, Peter Baile, Narayanaswamy, Balakrishnan, Kraska, Tim, Madden, Samuel
Query scheduling is a critical task that directly impacts query performance in database management systems (DBMS). Deeply integrated schedulers, which require changes to DBMS internals, are usually customized for a specific engine and can take months to implement. In contrast, non-intrusive schedulers make coarse-grained decisions, such as controlling query admission and re-ordering query execution, without requiring modifications to DBMS internals. They require much less engineering effort and can be applied across a wide range of DBMS engines, offering immediate benefits to end users. However, most existing non-intrusive scheduling systems rely on simplified cost models and heuristics that cannot accurately model query interactions under concurrency and different system states, possibly leading to suboptimal scheduling decisions. This work introduces IconqSched, a new, principled non-intrusive scheduler that optimizes the execution order and timing of queries to enhance total end-to-end runtime as experienced by the user query queuing time plus system runtime. Unlike previous approaches, IconqSched features a novel fine-grained predictor, Iconq, which treats the DBMS as a black box and accurately estimates the system runtime of concurrently executed queries under different system states. Using these predictions, IconqSched is able to capture system runtime variations across different query mixes and system loads. It then employs a greedy scheduling algorithm to effectively determine which queries to submit and when to submit them. We compare IconqSched to other schedulers in terms of end-to-end runtime using real workload traces. On Postgres, IconqSched reduces end-to-end runtime by 16.2%-28.2% on average and 33.6%-38.9% in the tail. Similarly, on Redshift, it reduces end-to-end runtime by 10.3%-14.1% on average and 14.9%-22.2% in the tail.
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