Addressing the will to give a more complete picture than an average relationship provided by standard regression, a novel framework for estimating and predicting simultaneously several conditional quantiles is introduced. The proposed methodology leverages kernel-based multi-task learning to curb the embarrassing phenomenon of quantile crossing, with a one-step estimation procedure and no post-processing. Moreover, this framework comes along with theoretical guarantees and an efficient coordinate descent learning algorithm. Numerical experiments on benchmark and real datasets highlight the enhancements of our approach regarding the prediction error, the crossing occurrences and the training time.

Collaborating teams of robots show promise due in their ability to complete missions more efficiently and with improved robustness, attributes that are particularly useful for systems operating in marine environments. A key issue is how to model, analyze, and design these multi-robot systems to realize the full benefits of collaboration, a challenging task since the domain of multi-robot autonomy encompasses both collective and individual behaviors. This paper introduces a layered model of multi-robot autonomy that uses the principle of census, or a weighted count of the inputs from neighbors, for collective decision-making about teaming, coupled with multi-objective behavior optimization for individual decision-making about actions. The census component is expressed as a nonlinear opinion dynamics model and the multi-objective behavior optimization is accomplished using interval programming. This model can be reduced to recover foundational algorithms in distributed optimization and control, while the full model enables new types of collective behaviors that are useful in real-world scenarios. To illustrate these points, a new method for distributed optimization of subgroup allocation is introduced where robots use a gradient descent algorithm to minimize portions of the cost functions that are locally known, while being influenced by the opinion states from neighbors to account for the unobserved costs. With this method the group can collectively use the information contained in the Hessian matrix of the total global cost. The utility of this model is experimentally validated in three categorically different experiments with fleets of autonomous surface vehicles: an adaptive sampling scenario, a high value unit protection scenario, and a competitive game of capture the flag.

Autonomous drone technology holds significant promise for enhancing search and rescue operations during evacuations by guiding humans toward safety and supporting broader emergency response efforts. However, their application in dynamic, real-time evacuation support remains limited. Existing models often overlook the psychological and emotional complexity of human behavior under extreme stress. In real-world fire scenarios, evacuees frequently deviate from designated safe routes due to panic and uncertainty. To address these challenges, this paper presents a multi-agent coordination framework in which autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) assist human evacuees in real-time by locating, intercepting, and guiding them to safety under uncertain conditions. We model the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), where two heterogeneous UAV agents, a high-level rescuer (HLR) and a low-level rescuer (LLR), coordinate through shared observations and complementary capabilities. Human behavior is captured using an agent-based model grounded in empirical psychology, where panic dynamically affects decision-making and movement in response to environmental stimuli. The environment features stochastic fire spread, unknown evacuee locations, and limited visibility, requiring UAVs to plan over long horizons to search for humans and adapt in real-time. Our framework employs the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm with recurrent policies to enable robust decision-making in partially observable settings. Simulation results demonstrate that the UAV team can rapidly locate and intercept evacuees, significantly reducing the time required for them to reach safety compared to scenarios without UAV assistance.

Is Trump losing patience with Putin? Will sanctions against Russian oil giants hurt Putin? How much of Europe's oil still comes from Russia? Europe lacks coordination as Russia'prepares for war with NATO': Experts Europe is unprepared to counteract a new chapter of Russian military and intelligence activities in the Baltic and North Seas, experts have told Al Jazeera. At the same time, they said, a growing rift between European and United States intelligence services is leaving the continent unsupported.

N-gram novelty is widely used to evaluate language models' ability to generate text outside of their training data. More recently, it has also been adopted as a metric for measuring textual creativity. However, theoretical work on creativity suggests that this approach may be inadequate, as it does not account for creativity's dual nature: novelty (how original the text is) and appropriateness (how sensical and pragmatic it is). We investigate the relationship between this notion of creativity and n-gram novelty through 7542 expert writer annotations (n=26) of novelty, pragmaticality, and sensicality via close reading of human and AI-generated text. We find that while n-gram novelty is positively associated with expert writer-judged creativity, ~91% of top-quartile expressions by n-gram novelty are not judged as creative, cautioning against relying on n-gram novelty alone. Furthermore, unlike human-written text, higher n-gram novelty in open-source LLMs correlates with lower pragmaticality. In an exploratory study with frontier close-source models, we additionally confirm that they are less likely to produce creative expressions than humans. Using our dataset, we test whether zero-shot, few-shot, and finetuned models are able to identify creative expressions (a positive aspect of writing) and non-pragmatic ones (a negative aspect). Overall, frontier LLMs exhibit performance much higher than random but leave room for improvement, especially struggling to identify non-pragmatic expressions. We further find that LLM-as-a-Judge novelty scores from the best-performing model were predictive of expert writer preferences.

In this paper, we present a general specification for Functional Effects Models, which use Machine Learning (ML) methodologies to learn individual-specific preference parameters from socio-demographic characteristics, therefore accounting for inter-individual heterogeneity in panel choice data. We identify three specific advantages of the Functional Effects Model over traditional fixed, and random/mixed effects models: (i) by mapping individual-specific effects as a function of socio-demographic variables, we can account for these effects when forecasting choices of previously unobserved individuals (ii) the (approximate) maximum-likelihood estimation of functional effects avoids the incidental parameters problem of the fixed effects model, even when the number of observed choices per individual is small; and (iii) we do not rely on the strong distributional assumptions of the random effects model, which may not match reality. We learn functional intercept and functional slopes with powerful non-linear machine learning regressors for tabular data, namely gradient boosting decision trees and deep neural networks. We validate our proposed methodology on a synthetic experiment and three real-world panel case studies, demonstrating that the Functional Effects Model: (i) can identify the true values of individual-specific effects when the data generation process is known; (ii) outperforms both state-of-the-art ML choice modelling techniques that omit individual heterogeneity in terms of predictive performance, as well as traditional static panel choice models in terms of learning inter-individual heterogeneity. The results indicate that the FI-RUMBoost model, which combines the individual-specific constants of the Functional Effects Model with the complex, non-linear utilities of RUMBoost, performs marginally best on large-scale revealed preference panel data.

Large language models (LLMs) now support context windows exceeding 128K tokens, but this comes with significant memory requirements and high inference latency. Quantization can mitigate these costs, but may degrade performance. In this work, we present the first systematic evaluation of quantized LLMs on tasks with long inputs (>64K tokens) and long-form outputs. Our evaluation spans 9.7K test examples, five quantization methods (FP8, GPTQ-int8, AWQ-int4, GPTQ-int4, BNB-nf4), and five models (Llama-3.1 8B and 70B; Qwen-2.5 7B, 32B, and 72B). We find that, on average, 8-bit quantization preserves accuracy (~0.8% drop), whereas 4-bit methods lead to substantial losses, especially for tasks involving long-context inputs (drops of up to 59%). This degradation tends to worsen when the input is in a language other than English. Crucially, the effects of quantization depend heavily on the quantization method, model, and task. For instance, while Qwen-2.5 72B remains robust under BNB-nf4, Llama-3.1 70B experiences a 32% performance drop on the same task. These findings highlight the importance of a careful, task-specific evaluation before deploying quantized LLMs, particularly in long-context scenarios and for languages other than English.

The use of kernels for nonlinear prediction is widespread in machine learning. They have been popularized in support vector machines and used in kernel ridge regression, amongst others. Kernel methods share three aspects. First, instead of the original matrix of predictor variables or features, each observation is mapped into an enlarged feature space. Second, a ridge penalty term is used to shrink the coefficients on the features in the enlarged feature space. Third, the solution is not obtained in this enlarged feature space, but through solving a dual problem in the observation space. A major drawback in the present use of kernels is that the interpretation in terms of the original features is lost. In this paper, we argue that in the case of a wide matrix of features, where there are more features than observations, the kernel solution can be re-expressed in terms of a linear combination of the original matrix of features and a ridge penalty that involves a special metric. Consequently, the exact same predicted values can be obtained as a weighted linear combination of the features in the usual manner and thus can be interpreted. In the case where the number of features is less than the number of observations, we discuss a least-squares approximation of the kernel matrix that still allows the interpretation in terms of a linear combination. It is shown that these results hold for any function of a linear combination that minimizes the coefficients and has a ridge penalty on these coefficients, such as in kernel logistic regression and kernel Poisson regression. This work makes a contribution to interpretable artificial intelligence.

State-of-the-art visual under-canopy navigation methods are designed with deep learning-based perception models to distinguish traversable space from crop rows. While these models have demonstrated successful performance, they require large amounts of training data to ensure reliability in real-world field deployment. However, data collection is costly, demanding significant human resources for in-field sampling and annotation. To address this challenge, various data augmentation techniques are commonly employed during model training, such as color jittering, Gaussian blur, and horizontal flip, to diversify training data and enhance model robustness. In this paper, we hypothesize that utilizing only these augmentation techniques may lead to suboptimal performance, particularly in complex under-canopy environments with frequent occlusions, debris, and non-uniform spacing of crops. Instead, we propose a novel augmentation method, so-called Crop-Aligned Cutout (CA-Cut) which masks random regions out in input images that are spatially distributed around crop rows on the sides to encourage trained models to capture high-level contextual features even when fine-grained information is obstructed. Our extensive experiments with a public cornfield dataset demonstrate that masking-based augmentations are effective for simulating occlusions and significantly improving robustness in semantic keypoint predictions for visual navigation. In particular, we show that biasing the mask distribution toward crop rows in CA-Cut is critical for enhancing both prediction accuracy and generalizability across diverse environments achieving up to a 36.9% reduction in prediction error. In addition, we conduct ablation studies to determine the number of masks, the size of each mask, and the spatial distribution of masks to maximize overall performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) enable new possibilities for qualitative research at scale, including coding and data annotation. While multi-agent systems (MAS) can emulate human coding workflows, their benefits over single-agent coding remain poorly understood. We conducted an experimental study of how agent persona and temperature shape consensus-building and coding accuracy of dialog segments based on a codebook with 8 codes. Our open-source MAS mirrors deductive human coding through structured agent discussion and consensus arbitration. Using six open-source LLMs (with 3 to 32 billion parameters) and 18 experimental configurations, we analyze over 77,000 coding decisions against a gold-standard dataset of human-annotated transcripts from online math tutoring sessions. Temperature significantly impacted whether and when consensus was reached across all six LLMs. MAS with multiple personas (including neutral, assertive, or empathetic), significantly delayed consensus in four out of six LLMs compared to uniform personas. In three of those LLMs, higher temperatures significantly diminished the effects of multiple personas on consensus. However, neither temperature nor persona pairing lead to robust improvements in coding accuracy. Single agents matched or outperformed MAS consensus in most conditions. Only one model (OpenHermesV2:7B) and code category showed above-chance gains from MAS deliberation when temperature was 0.5 or lower and especially when the agents included at least one assertive persona. Qualitative analysis of MAS collaboration for these configurations suggests that MAS may nonetheless aid in narrowing ambiguous code applications that could improve codebooks and human-AI coding. We contribute new insight into the limits of LLM-based qualitative methods, challenging the notion that diverse MAS personas lead to better outcomes. We open-source our MAS and experimentation code.