Artificial intelligence could predict El Niño up to 18 months in advance

The dreaded El Niño strikes the globe every 2 to 7 years. As warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean shift eastward and trade winds weaken, the weather pattern ripples through the atmosphere, causing drought in southern Africa, wildfires in South America, and flooding on North America's Pacific coast. Climate scientists have struggled to predict El Niño events more than 1 year in advance, but artificial intelligence (AI) can now extend forecasts to 18 months, according to a new study. The work could help people in threatened regions better prepare for droughts and floods, for example by choosing which crops to plant, says William Hsieh, a retired climate scientist in Victoria, Canada, who worked on early El Niño forecasts but who was not involved in the current study. Longer forecasts could have "large economic benefits," he says.