Updates and Lessons from AI Forecasting

Earlier this year, my research group commissioned 6 questions for professional forecasters to predict about AI. They have financial incentives to produce accurate forecasts; the rewards total \$5k per question (\$30k total) and payoffs are (close to) a proper scoring rule, meaning forecasters are rewarded for outputting calibrated probabilities. You're in luck, because I'm going to answer each of these in the following sections! Feel free to skim to the ones that interest you the most. The particular questions were designed by my students Alex Wei, Collin Burns, Jean-Stanislas Denain, and Dan Hendrycks.