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John Healey talked of charting a new course for Britain, but this Budget was more about course-correcting than charging down a new path. It was abundantly clear that the financial fallout from that conflict in the Middle East has hampered the finances of households and businesses - and the government's ability to help. While the government targeted those impacted by higher energy and fuel bills, the breathing space it aimed to provide was limited; it is a pill that doesn't fully alleviate the pain. The most telling evidence was that official forecasters predict that while earnings will rise, that is not compensating for higher prices and taxes. Even after the extra help is taken into account, households' incomes after inflation and tax are set to be typically lower across the next two years than the start of the parliament, a sign of how much the war has blown prosperity off course.

Its WeatherNext model, which will be open-sourced, can accurately predict a storm's track and intensity using lower-resolution weather data. Researchers don't yet fully understand how it does this. In October 2025, a storm brewed over the Caribbean Sea. Weather models differed on its trajectory. Would it remain weak and end up in Haiti, or would it intensify and head to Jamaica?

Time series, typically represented as numerical sequences, can also be transformed into images and texts, offering multi-modal views (MMVs) of the same underlying signal. These MMVs can reveal complementary patterns and enable the use of powerful pre-trained large models, such as large vision models (LVMs), for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF). However, as we identified in this work, the state-ofthe-art (SOTA) LVM-based forecaster poses an inductive bias towards "forecasting periods". To harness this bias, we propose DMMV, a novel decomposition-based multi-modal view framework that leverages trend-seasonal decomposition and a novel backcast-residual based adaptive decomposition to integrate MMVs for LTSF. Comparative evaluations against 14 SOTA models across diverse datasets show that DMMV outperforms single-view and existing multi-modal baselines, achieving the best mean squared error (MSE) on 6 out of 8 benchmark datasets. The code for this paper is available at: https://github.com/D2I-Group/dmmv.

Calibration is a fundamental concept that aims at ensuring the reliability of probabilistic predictions by aligning them with real-world outcomes. There is a surge of studies on new calibration measures that are easier to optimize compared to the classical ℓ1-Calibration while still having strong implications for downstream applications. One such recent example is the work by Fishelson et al. (2025) who show that it is possible to achieve O(T1/3)pseudo ℓ2-Calibration error via minimizing pseudo swap regret of the squared loss, which in fact implies the same bound for all bounded proper losses with a smooth univariate form. In this work, we significantly generalize their result in the following ways: (a) in addition to smooth univariate forms, our algorithm also simultaneously achieves O(T1/3) swap regret for any proper loss with a twice continuously differentiable univariate form (such as Tsallis entropy); (b) our bounds hold not only for pseudo swap regret that measures losses using the forecaster's distributions on predictions, but also hold for the actual swap regret that measures losses using the forecaster's actual realized predictions. We achieve so by introducing a new stronger notion of calibration called (pseudo) KL-Calibration, which we show is equivalent to the (pseudo) swap regret with respect to log loss. We prove that there exists an algorithm that achieves O(T1/3) KL-Calibration error and provide an explicit algorithm that achieves O(T1/3) pseudo KL-Calibration error. Moreover, we show that the same algorithm achieves O(T1/3(logT) 13 log(T/δ)) swap regret with probability at least 1 δ for any proper loss with a smooth univariate form, which implies O(T1/3) ℓ2-Calibration error. A technical contribution of our work is a new randomized rounding procedure and a non-uniform discretization scheme to minimize the swap regret for log loss.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix.

Performative predictions are forecasts which influence the outcomes they aim to predict, undermining the existence of correct forecasts and standard methods of elicitation and estimation. We show that conditioning forecasts on covariates that separate them from the outcome renders the target distribution forecast-invariant, guaranteeing well-posedness of the forecasting problem. However, even under this condition, classical proper scoring rules fail to elicit correct forecasts. We prove a general impossibility result and identify two solutions: (i) in decision-theoretic settings, elicitation of correct and incentive-compatible forecasts is possible if forecasts are separating; (ii) scoring with unbiased estimates of the divergence between the forecast and the induced distribution of the target variable yields correct forecasts. Applying these insights to parameter estimation, conditional forecasts and proper scoring rules enable performatively stable estimation of performatively correct parameters, resolving the issues raised by Perdomo et al. (2020). Our results expose fundamental limits of classical forecast evaluation and offer new tools for reliable and accurate forecasting in performative settings.

Selective prediction [Dru13, QV19] models the scenario where a forecaster freely decides on the prediction window that their forecast spans. Many data statistics can be predicted to a non-trivial error rate without any distributional assumptions or expert advice, yet these results rely on that the forecaster may predict at any time. We introduce a model of Prediction with Limited Selectivity (PLS) where the forecaster can start the prediction only on a subset of the time horizon. We study the optimal prediction error both on an instance-by-instance basis and via an average-case analysis. We introduce a complexity measure that gives instancedependent bounds on the optimal error. For a randomly-generated PLS instance, these bounds match with high probability.

Calibration is a fundamental concept that aims at ensuring the reliability of probabilistic predictions by aligning them with real-world outcomes. There is a surge of studies on new calibration measures that are easier to optimize compared to the classical $\ell_1$-Calibration while still having strong implications for downstream applications. One recent such example is the work by Fishelson et al. (2025) who show that it is possible to achieve $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{1/3})$ pseudo $\ell_{2}$-Calibration error via minimizing pseudo swap regret of the squared loss, which in fact implies the same bound for all bounded proper losses with a smooth univariate form. In this work, we significantly generalize their result in the following ways: (a) in addition to smooth univariate forms, our algorithm also simultaneously achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{1/3})$ swap regret for any proper loss with a twice continuously differentiable univariate form (such as Tsallis entropy); (b) our bounds hold not only for pseudo swap regret that measures losses using the forecaster's distributions on predictions, but also hold for the actual swap regret that measures losses using the forecaster's actual realized predictions. We achieve so by introducing a new stronger notion of calibration called (pseudo) KL-Calibration, which we show is equivalent to the (pseudo) swap regret with respect to log loss.