Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses

Enteroviruses are important drivers of global health, but few countries undertake enterovirus surveillance. Pons-Salort and Grassly used Japanese surveillance data to model the interplay between the ratio of susceptible and immune individuals, accounting for declining birth and death rates, incomplete surveillance, and seasonality of infection (see the Perspective by Nikolay and Cauchemez). Enteroviruses have highly predictable yet highly nonlinear dynamics. The model also reveals signatures of increased pathogenicity and of antigenic change and transmissibility. Science, this issue p. 800; see also p. 755 Human enteroviruses are a major cause of neurological and other diseases.