The Biggest Threat to the 2026 Economy Is Still Donald Trump

Many analysts are predicting an election-year upturn, but they aren't accounting for the President's ability to cause more chaos. In a primetime address from the Oval Office last week, Donald Trump said, "We are poised for an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen." This was the sort of bloviating that has convinced many voters he's hopelessly out of touch, but it did raise the question of how the economy is likely to perform in 2026, a midterm-election year. Given the data fog that the government shutdown created, the old joke applies more than ever: it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. But some things seem reasonably clear.