9 Appendix Supplementary material for the paper Causal analysis of 19 spread in Germany

Figure5: Detectedcausal pathsof the spreadof Covid-19amongthe federalGermanstates, including causes among the restriction measures taken by each federal state. Each colour (in arrows and policies) indicates causes of one state (see top legend). The four subfigures correspond to the four combinations of threshold 1 and 2 that we tested. A distribution P is faithful to a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G if no conditionalindependence relationsotherthanthe onesentailed by the Markov property are present. Let G be a causal graph with vertex setV and P be a probability distribution over the vertices inV generated by the causal structure represented by G. G and P satisfy the Causal Markov Condition if and only if for every W in V, W is independent of V\(Descendants(W) Parents(W)) given Parents(W).