We resolve a 30-year-old open problem concerning the power of unlabeled data in online learning by tightly quantifying the gap between transductive and standard online learning. In the standard setting, the optimal mistake bound is characterized by the Littlestone dimension $d$ of the concept class $H$ (Littlestone 1987). We prove that in the transductive setting, the mistake bound is at least $Ω(\sqrt{d})$. This constitutes an exponential improvement over previous lower bounds of $Ω(\log\log d)$, $Ω(\sqrt{\log d})$, and $Ω(\log d)$, due respectively to Ben-David, Kushilevitz, and Mansour (1995, 1997) and Hanneke, Moran, and Shafer (2023). We also show that this lower bound is tight: for every $d$, there exists a class of Littlestone dimension $d$ with transductive mistake bound $O(\sqrt{d})$. Our upper bound also improves upon the best known upper bound of $(2/3)d$ from Ben-David, Kushilevitz, and Mansour (1997). These results establish a quadratic gap between transductive and standard online learning, thereby highlighting the benefit of advance access to the unlabeled instance sequence. This contrasts with the PAC setting, where transductive and standard learning exhibit similar sample complexities.

Federated Learning (FL) holds the potential to advance equality in health by enabling diverse institutions to collaboratively train deep learning (DL) models, even with limited data. However, the significant resource requirements of FL often exclude centres with limited computational infrastructure, further widening existing healthcare disparities. To address this issue, we propose a Green AI-oriented adaptive layer-freezing strategy designed to reduce energy consumption and computational load while maintaining model performance. We tested our approach using different federated architectures for Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)-to-Computed Tomography (CT) conversion. The proposed adaptive strategy optimises the federated training by selectively freezing the encoder weights based on the monitored relative difference of the encoder weights from round to round. A patience-based mechanism ensures that freezing only occurs when updates remain consistently minimal. The energy consumption and CO2eq emissions of the federation were tracked using the CodeCarbon library. Compared to equivalent non-frozen counterparts, our approach reduced training time, total energy consumption and CO2eq emissions by up to 23%. At the same time, the MRI-to-CT conversion performance was maintained, with only small variations in the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Notably, for three out of the five evaluated architectures, no statistically significant differences were observed, while two architectures exhibited statistically significant improvements. Our work aligns with a research paradigm that promotes DL-based frameworks meeting clinical requirements while ensuring climatic, social, and economic sustainability. It lays the groundwork for novel FL evaluation frameworks, advancing privacy, equity and, more broadly, justice in AI-driven healthcare.

We loose a strictly formulated assumption for a causal feature selection method for time series data, robust to latent confounders, which we subsequently apply on Covid-19 case numbers.

Isolated rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) is a major prodromal marker of $α$-synucleinopathies, often preceding the clinical onset of Parkinson's disease, dementia with Lewy bodies, or multiple system atrophy. While wrist-worn actimeters hold significant potential for detecting RBD in large-scale screening efforts by capturing abnormal nocturnal movements, they become inoperable without a reliable and efficient analysis pipeline. This study presents ActiTect, a fully automated, open-source machine learning tool to identify RBD from actigraphy recordings. To ensure generalizability across heterogeneous acquisition settings, our pipeline includes robust preprocessing and automated sleep-wake detection to harmonize multi-device data and extract physiologically interpretable motion features characterizing activity patterns. Model development was conducted on a cohort of 78 individuals, yielding strong discrimination under nested cross-validation (AUROC = 0.95). Generalization was confirmed on a blinded local test set (n = 31, AUROC = 0.86) and on two independent external cohorts (n = 113, AUROC = 0.84; n = 57, AUROC = 0.94). To assess real-world robustness, leave-one-dataset-out cross-validation across the internal and external cohorts demonstrated consistent performance (AUROC range = 0.84-0.89). A complementary stability analysis showed that key predictive features remained reproducible across datasets, supporting the final pooled multi-center model as a robust pre-trained resource for broader deployment. By being open-source and easy to use, our tool promotes widespread adoption and facilitates independent validation and collaborative improvements, thereby advancing the field toward a unified and generalizable RBD detection model using wearable devices.

We consider the problem of recovering a latent signal $X$ from its noisy observation $Y$. The unknown law $\mathbb{P}^X$ of $X$, and in particular its support $\mathscr{M}$, are accessible only through a large sample of i.i.d.\ observations. We further assume $\mathscr{M}$ to be a low-dimensional submanifold of a high-dimensional Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^d$. As a filter or denoiser $\widehat X$, we suggest an estimator of the metric projection $π_{\mathscr{M}}(Y)$ of $Y$ onto the manifold $\mathscr{M}$. To compute this estimator, we study an auxiliary semiparametric model in which $Y$ is obtained by adding isotropic Laplace noise to $X$. Using score matching within a corresponding diffusion model, we obtain an estimator of the Bayesian posterior $\mathbb{P}^{X \mid Y}$ in this setup. Our main theoretical results show that, in the limit of high dimension $d$, this posterior $\mathbb{P}^{X\mid Y}$ is concentrated near the desired metric projection $π_{\mathscr{M}}(Y)$.

In recent years, natural language processing (NLP) has become integral to educational data mining, particularly in the analysis of student-generated language products. For research and assessment purposes, so-called embedding models are typically employed to generate numeric representations of text that capture its semantic content for use in subsequent quantitative analyses. Y et when it comes to science-related language, symbolic expressions such as equations and formulas introduce challenges that current embedding models struggle to address. Existing research studies and practical applications often either overlook these challenges or remove symbolic expressions altogether, potentially leading to biased research findings and diminished performance of practical applications. This study therefore explores how contemporary embedding models differ in their capability to process and interpret science-related symbolic expressions. To this end, various embedding models are evaluated using physics-specific symbolic expressions drawn from authentic student responses, with performance assessed via two approaches: 1) similarity-based analyses and 2) integration into a machine learning pipeline. Our findings reveal significant differences in model performance, with OpenAI's GPT-text-embedding-3-large outperforming all other examined models, though its advantage over other models was moderate rather than decisive. Overall, this study underscores the importance for educational data mining researchers and practitioners of carefully selecting NLP embedding models when working with science-related language products that include symbolic expressions. The code and (partial) data are available at https: //doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/6XQVG.

Effective management of agricultural landscapes is critical for meeting global biodiversity targets, but efforts are hampered by the absence of detailed, large-scale ecological maps. To address this, we introduce Farmscapes, the first large-scale (covering most of England), high-resolution (25cm) map of rural landscape features, including ecologically vital elements like hedgerows, woodlands, and stone walls. This map was generated using a deep learning segmentation model trained on a novel, dataset of 942 manually annotated tiles derived from aerial imagery. Our model accurately identifies key habitats, achieving high f1-scores for woodland (96\%) and farmed land (95\%), and demonstrates strong capability in segmenting linear features, with an F1-score of 72\% for hedgerows. By releasing the England-wide map on Google Earth Engine, we provide a powerful, open-access tool for ecologists and policymakers. This work enables data-driven planning for habitat restoration, supports the monitoring of initiatives like the EU Biodiversity Strategy, and lays the foundation for advanced analysis of landscape connectivity.

Recent studies suggest that very small language models (SLMs) can generate surprisingly coherent text when trained on simplified, child-directed corpora such as TinyStories. These findings have been interpreted as evidence that readability -- characterized by accessible vocabulary, familiar narrative structure, and simple syntax -- plays a key role in enabling such capabilities to emerge. In this paper, we challenge that interpretation. We construct synthetic datasets with matched structure but varied readability, and find that readability alone does not predict coherence or learning efficiency in SLMs. Models trained on complex, adult-level text perform comparably to those trained on simplified language, and even exhibit faster development of coherence during training. Instead, we show that statistical simplicity, as measured by n-gram diversity, is a stronger predictor of learnability. Our findings caution against the growing trend of anthropomorphizing language model training -- drawing parallels to human cognitive development without empirical basis -- and argue for more precise reasoning about what properties actually support capability emergence in small models.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of public health interventions, such as vaccination strategies and containment policies. However, such compartmental models like SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) often face limitations in directly incorporating noisy observational data. In this work, we employ Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to solve the inverse problem of the SIR model using infection data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Our main contribution is a fine-grained, spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 dynamics across all German federal states over a three-year period. We estimate state-specific transmission and recovery parameters and time-varying reproduction number (R_t) to track the pandemic progression. The results highlight strong variations in transmission behavior across regions, revealing correlations with vaccination uptake and temporal patterns associated with major pandemic phases. Our findings demonstrate the utility of PINNs in localized, long-term epidemiological modeling.