Figure5: Detectedcausal pathsof the spreadof Covid-19amongthe federalGermanstates, including causes among the restriction measures taken by each federal state. Each colour (in arrows and policies) indicates causes of one state (see top legend). The four subfigures correspond to the four combinations of threshold 1 and 2 that we tested. A distribution P is faithful to a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G if no conditionalindependence relationsotherthanthe onesentailed by the Markov property are present. Let G be a causal graph with vertex setV and P be a probability distribution over the vertices inV generated by the causal structure represented by G. G and P satisfy the Causal Markov Condition if and only if for every W in V, W is independent of V\(Descendants(W) Parents(W)) given Parents(W).

Causal discovery, or identifying causal relationships from observational data, is a notoriously challenging task, with numerous methods proposed to tackle it. Despite this, in-the-wild evaluation of these methods is still lacking, as works frequently rely on synthetic data evaluation and sparse real-world examples under critical theoretical assumptions. Real-world causal structures, however, are often complex, making it hard to decide on a proper causal discovery strategy. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalRivers, the largest in-the-wild causal discovery benchmarking kit for time-series data to date. CausalRivers features an extensive dataset on river discharge that covers the eastern German territory (666 measurement stations) and the state of Bavaria (494 measurement stations). It spans the years 2019 to 2023 with a 15-minute temporal resolution. Further, we provide additional data from a flood around the Elbe River, as an event with a pronounced distributional shift. Leveraging multiple sources of information and time-series meta-data, we constructed two distinct causal ground truth graphs (Bavaria and eastern Germany). These graphs can be sampled to generate thousands of subgraphs to benchmark causal discovery across diverse and challenging settings. To demonstrate the utility of CausalRivers, we evaluate several causal discovery approaches through a set of experiments to identify areas for improvement. CausalRivers has the potential to facilitate robust evaluations and comparisons of causal discovery methods. Besides this primary purpose, we also expect that this dataset will be relevant for connected areas of research, such as time-series forecasting and anomaly detection. Based on this, we hope to push benchmark-driven method development that fosters advanced techniques for causal discovery, as is the case for many other areas of machine learning.

Digital deliberation has expanded democratic participation, yet challenges remain. This includes processing information at scale, moderating discussions, fact-checking, or attracting people to participate. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) offer potential solutions, but public perceptions of AI's role in deliberation remain underexplored. Beyond efficiency, democratic deliberation is about voice and recognition. If AI is integrated into deliberation, public trust, acceptance, and willingness to participate may be affected. We conducted a preregistered survey experiment with a representative sample in Germany (n=1850) to examine how information about AI-enabled deliberation influences willingness to participate and perceptions of deliberative quality. Respondents were randomly assigned to treatments that provided them information about deliberative tasks facilitated by either AI or humans. Our findings reveal a significant AI-penalty. Participants were less willing to engage in AI-facilitated deliberation and rated its quality lower than human-led formats. These effects were moderated by individual predispositions. Perceptions of AI's societal benefits and anthropomorphization of AI showed positive interaction effects on people's interest to participate in AI-enabled deliberative formats and positive quality assessments, while AI risk assessments showed negative interactions with information about AI-enabled deliberation. These results suggest AI-enabled deliberation faces substantial public skepticism, potentially even introducing a new deliberative divide. Unlike traditional participation gaps based on education or demographics, this divide is shaped by attitudes toward AI. As democratic engagement increasingly moves online, ensuring AI's role in deliberation does not discourage participation or deepen inequalities will be a key challenge for future research and policy.

Tree-based learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost are still the gold-standard prediction methods for tabular data. Feature importance measures are usually considered for feature selection as well as to assess the effect of features on the outcome variables in the model. This also applies to survey data, which are frequently encountered in the social sciences and official statistics. These types of datasets often present the challenge of missing values. The typical solution is to impute the missing data before applying the learning method. However, given the large number of possible imputation methods available, the question arises as to which should be chosen to achieve the 'best' reflection of feature importance and feature selection in subsequent analyses. In the present paper, we investigate this question in a survey-based simulation study for eight state-of-the art imputation methods and three learners. The imputation methods comprise listwise deletion, three MICE options, four \texttt{missRanger} options as well as the recently proposed mixGBoost imputation approach. As learners, we consider the two most common tree-based methods, Random Forest and XGBoost, and an interpretable linear model with regularization.

(English) This study examines the AI-powered grading tool "AI Grading Assistant" by the German company Fobizz, designed to support teachers in evaluating and providing feedback on student assignments. Against the societal backdrop of an overburdened education system and rising expectations for artificial intelligence as a solution to these challenges, the investigation evaluates the tool's functional suitability through two test series. The results reveal significant shortcomings: The tool's numerical grades and qualitative feedback are often random and do not improve even when its suggestions are incorporated. The highest ratings are achievable only with texts generated by ChatGPT. False claims and nonsensical submissions frequently go undetected, while the implementation of some grading criteria is unreliable and opaque. Since these deficiencies stem from the inherent limitations of large language models (LLMs), fundamental improvements to this or similar tools are not immediately foreseeable. The study critiques the broader trend of adopting AI as a quick fix for systemic problems in education, concluding that Fobizz's marketing of the tool as an objective and time-saving solution is misleading and irresponsible. Finally, the study calls for systematic evaluation and subject-specific pedagogical scrutiny of the use of AI tools in educational contexts.

Despite having triggered devastating pandemics in the past, our ability to quantitatively assess the emergence potential of individual strains of animal influenza viruses remains limited. This study introduces Emergenet, a tool to infer a digital twin of sequence evolution to chart how new variants might emerge in the wild. Our predictions based on Emergenets built only using 220,151 Hemagglutinnin (HA) sequences consistently outperform WHO seasonal vaccine recommendations for H1N1/H3N2 subtypes over two decades (average match-improvement: 3.73 AAs, 28.40\%), and are at par with state-of-the-art approaches that use more detailed phenotypic annotations. Finally, our generative models are used to scalably calculate the current odds of emergence of animal strains not yet in human circulation, which strongly correlates with CDC's expert-assessed Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) scores (Pearson's $r = 0.721, p = 10^{-4}$). A minimum five orders of magnitude speedup over CDC's assessment (seconds vs months) then enabled us to analyze 6,354 animal strains collected post-2020 to identify 35 strains with high emergence scores ($> 7.7$). The Emergenet framework opens the door to preemptive pandemic mitigation through targeted inoculation of animal hosts before the first human infection.

The application of natural language processing on political texts as well as speeches has become increasingly relevant in political sciences due to the ability to analyze large text corpora which cannot be read by a single person. But such text corpora often lack critical meta information, detailing for instance the party, age or constituency of the speaker, that can be used to provide an analysis tailored to more fine-grained research questions. To enable researchers to answer such questions with quantitative approaches such as natural language processing, we provide the SpeakGer data set, consisting of German parliament debates from all 16 federal states of Germany as well as the German Bundestag from 1947-2023, split into a total of 10,806,105 speeches. This data set includes rich meta data in form of information on both reactions from the audience towards the speech as well as information about the speaker's party, their age, their constituency and their party's political alignment, which enables a deeper analysis. We further provide three exploratory analyses, detailing topic shares of different parties throughout time, a descriptive analysis of the development of the age of an average speaker as well as a sentiment analysis of speeches of different parties with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hate speech detection models are only as good as the data they are trained on. Datasets sourced from social media suffer from systematic gaps and biases, leading to unreliable models with simplistic decision boundaries. Adversarial datasets, collected by exploiting model weaknesses, promise to fix this problem. However, adversarial data collection can be slow and costly, and individual annotators have limited creativity. In this paper, we introduce GAHD, a new German Adversarial Hate speech Dataset comprising ca.\ 11k examples. During data collection, we explore new strategies for supporting annotators, to create more diverse adversarial examples more efficiently and provide a manual analysis of annotator disagreements for each strategy. Our experiments show that the resulting dataset is challenging even for state-of-the-art hate speech detection models, and that training on GAHD clearly improves model robustness. Further, we find that mixing multiple support strategies is most advantageous. We make GAHD publicly available at https://github.com/jagol/gahd.

Identifying linguistic differences between dialects of a language often requires expert knowledge and meticulous human analysis. This is largely due to the complexity and nuance involved in studying various dialects. We present a novel approach to extract distinguishing lexical features of dialects by utilizing interpretable dialect classifiers, even in the absence of human experts. We explore both post-hoc and intrinsic approaches to interpretability, conduct experiments on Mandarin, Italian, and Low Saxon, and experimentally demonstrate that our method successfully identifies key language-specific lexical features that contribute to dialectal variations.