LSTM-based Flow Prediction

Wang, Hongzhi, Song, Yang, Tang, Shihan

arXiv.org Machine Learning 

--In this paper, a method of prediction on continuous time series variables from the production or flow - an LSTM algorithm based on multivariate tuning - is proposed. The algorithm improves the traditional LSTM algorithm and converts the time series data into supervised learning sequences regarding industrial data's features. The main innovation of this paper consists in introducing the concepts of periodic measurement and time window in the industrial prediction problem, especially considering industrial data with time series characteristics. Experiments using real-world datasets show that the prediction accuracy is improved, 54.05% higher than that of traditional LSTM algorithm. In industry, with the high-speed functioning of the enterprise product line, data are generated continuously. Malfunctions and abnormality often take place, which incur a great deal of money and resources, and even advanced equipment cannot avoid these problems[1]. Industrial companies have to pay a lot to maintain and ensure the normal operation of the manufacturing process. According to the statistics, the maintenance costs of all kinds of industrial enterprises account for about 15%-70% of total production costs[2]. Flow prediction is motivated by such industrial conundrums faced by many factories. Implementing flow prediction to forecast the output of the machine and to detect the problems in time via prediction, not only can production increase, but also a large number of workforce and resources for troubleshooting can be saved.

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