We can't let them hide behind their models From Gaza to Iran, the pattern is the same: precision weapons, chosen blindness, and dead children. There is an Israeli military strategy called the "fog procedure". First used during the second intifada, it's an unofficial rule that requires soldiers guarding military posts in conditions of low visibility to shoot bursts of gunfire into the darkness, on the theory that an invisible threat might be lurking. It's violence licensed by blindness. Shoot into the darkness and call it deterrence. With the dawn of AI warfare, that same logic of chosen blindness has been refined, systematized, and handed off to a machine.

Despite the success of single-agent reinforcement learning, multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) remains challenging due to complex interactions between agents. Motivated by decentralized applications such as sensor networks, swarm robotics, and power grids, we study policy evaluation in MARL, where agents with jointly observed state-action pairs and private local rewards collaborate to learn the value of a given policy. In this paper, we propose a double averaging scheme, where each agent iteratively performs averaging over both space and time to incorporate neighboring gradient information and local reward information, respectively. We prove that the proposed algorithm converges to the optimal solution at a global geometric rate. In particular, such an algorithm is built upon a primal-dual reformulation of the mean squared Bellman error minimization problem, which gives rise to a decentralized convex-concave saddle-point problem. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed double averaging primal-dual optimization algorithm is the first to achieve fast finite-time convergence on decentralized convex-concave saddle-point problems.

In many sequential decision making tasks, it is challenging to design reward functions that help an RL agent efficiently learn behavior that is considered good by the agent designer. A number of different formulations of the reward-design problem, or close variants thereof, have been proposed in the literature. In this paper we build on the Optimal Rewards Framework of Singh et al. that defines the optimal intrinsic reward function as one that when used by an RL agent achieves behavior that optimizes the task-specifying or extrinsic reward function. Previous work in this framework has shown how good intrinsic reward functions can be learned for lookahead search based planning agents. Whether it is possible to learn intrinsic reward functions for learning agents remains an open problem. In this paper we derive a novel algorithm for learning intrinsic rewards for policy-gradient based learning agents. We compare the performance of an augmented agent that uses our algorithm to provide additive intrinsic rewards to an A2C-based policy learner (for Atari games) and a PPO-based policy learner (for Mujoco domains) with a baseline agent that uses the same policy learners but with only extrinsic rewards. Our results show improved performance on most but not all of the domains.

Risk management in dynamic decision problems is a primary concern in many fields, including financial investment, autonomous driving, and healthcare. The mean-variance function is one of the most widely used objective functions in risk management due to its simplicity and interpretability. Existing algorithms for mean-variance optimization are based on multi-time-scale stochastic approximation, whose learning rate schedules are often hard to tune, and have only asymptotic convergence proof. In this paper, we develop a model-free policy search framework for mean-variance optimization with finite-sample error bound analysis (to local optima). Our starting point is a reformulation of the original mean-variance function with its Fenchel dual, from which we propose a stochastic block coordinate ascent policy search algorithm. Both the asymptotic convergence guarantee of the last iteration's solution and the convergence rate of the randomly picked solution are provided, and their applicability is demonstrated on several benchmark domains.

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases that are hard to quantify. The latter enjoy asymptotic consistency, but can suffer from high computational costs. In this paper we present a way of bridging the gap between deterministic and stochastic inference. Specifically, we suggest an efficient sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for PGMs which can leverage the output from deterministic inference methods. While generally applicable, we show explicitly how this can be done with loopy belief propagation, expectation propagation, and Laplace approximations. The resulting algorithm can be viewed as a post-correction of the biases associated with these methods and, indeed, numerical results show clear improvements over the baseline deterministic methods as well as over plain SMC.

Our study of 22 mitigation techniques and five baselines reveals up to 12.6% fairness variance across identical training runs with identical seeds.

The multivariate normal density is a monotonic function of the distance to the mean, and its ellipsoidal shape is due to the underlying Euclidean metric. We suggest to replace this metric with a locally adaptive, smoothly changing (Riemannian) metric that favors regions of high local density. The resulting locally adaptive normal distribution (LAND) is a generalization of the normal distribution to the manifold setting, where data is assumed to lie near a potentially low-dimensional manifold embedded in R^D. The LAND is parametric, depending only on a mean and a covariance, and is the maximum entropy distribution under the given metric. The underlying metric is, however, non-parametric. We develop a maximum likelihood algorithm to infer the distribution parameters that relies on a combination of gradient descent and Monte Carlo integration. We further extend the LAND to mixture models, and provide the corresponding EM algorithm. We demonstrate the efficiency of the LAND to fit non-trivial probability distributions over both synthetic data, and EEG measurements of human sleep.

We propose stochastic optimization algorithms that can find local minima faster than existing algorithms for nonconvex optimization problems, by exploiting the third-order smoothness to escape non-degenerate saddle points more efficiently.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) was recently proposed as a general purpose nonparametric variational inference algorithm: it minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the target distribution and its approximation by implementing a form of functional gradient descent on a reproducing kernel Hilbert space [Liu & Wang, NIPS 2016]. In this paper, we accelerate and generalize the SVGD algorithm by including second-order information, thereby approximating a Newton-like iteration in function space. We also show how second-order information can lead to more effective choices of kernel. We observe significant computational gains over the original SVGD algorithm in multiple test cases.

Asynchronous momentum stochastic gradient descent algorithms (Async-MSGD) have been widely used in distributed machine learning, e.g., training large collaborative filtering systems and deep neural networks. Due to current technical limit, however, establishing convergence properties of Async-MSGD for these highly complicated nonoconvex problems is generally infeasible. Therefore, we propose to analyze the algorithm through a simpler but nontrivial nonconvex problems --- streaming PCA. This allows us to make progress toward understanding Aync-MSGD and gaining new insights for more general problems. Specifically, by exploiting the diffusion approximation of stochastic optimization, we establish the asymptotic rate of convergence of Async-MSGD for streaming PCA. Our results indicate a fundamental tradeoff between asynchrony and momentum: To ensure convergence and acceleration through asynchrony, we have to reduce the momentum (compared with Sync-MSGD). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical attempt on understanding Async-MSGD for distributed nonconvex stochastic optimization. Numerical experiments on both streaming PCA and training deep neural networks are provided to support our findings for Async-MSGD.